Bahrain GP - Race Day Update

Bahrain GP

With the 2017 F1 season starting with a bang, we try to find the value this weekend.

A first ever pole position for Valteri Bottas was a terrific moment for the young Finn, and he's clearly got a huge career in front of him. The bookmakers are not convinced of his race craft over a full distance, but we believe the 5/2 offered is too long given he is at the front and in the best car. Of course Hamilton will pose a significant threat, and Vettel in 3rd cannot be ruled out, but we'll add Bottas into our bets at this point at 5/2.

Bottas to win at 5/2

We also like the look of the total finishers line. Bahrain has a history of high finishing numbers, due to the wide run off around the track, and fears when the teams first went to the desert that sand particles in the air would cause technical problems have never materialised. Below are the stats of finishers from the last 10 runnings of the Bahrain GP. They make the close to even money offers about 16 or more making the finish look very tempting indeed. You can get 10/11 about Over 15 Finishers - a bet which would have won in every race over the last ten years - although of course there we're more starters in some years.

Finishers - Starters

2016 - 17/20

2015 - 17/19

2014 - 17/22

2013 - 21/22

2012 - 22/24

2011 - Not Held

2010 - 17/24

2009 - 19/20

2008 - 19/22

2007 - 16/22

2006 - 18/22

Over 15.5 Finishers at 10/11

Previous Tips

It's more than realistic to believe that Sebastian Vettel would have won in China has it not been for a terribly timed safety car ruining what looked for a moment to be a perfectly timed undercut on his Mercedes rival, and we think that bad luck may have been overlooked by the bookmakers.

Of course Hamilton is looking the man to beat on Saturday afternoons, but come Sunday's and the Ferrari looks the better machine over a race distance on the basis of the evidence so far, and we reckon the 15/8 on the German represents good value this weekend.

Vettel to win at 15/8

We also like the chances of 11/4 Esteben Ocon to make it a hat-trick of points finishes in Bahrain. He achieved 10th place in Melbourne, and then again last week, so nearly 3/1 looks long given he is racing for the proven Force India outfit, who have yet to finish outside the points with either of their cars. Listening to Ocon after the race in China, not only was his qualifying screwed up with yellow flags on both flying laps, but he also lost time in the pits come race day which should have seen him finishing higher up the order. This looks a super solid bet.

Ocon to finish in the points at 11/4

Staked = 4 units

Returns = 6.63 units

Profit = 2.63 units

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