French Open Mens Final

Betting on the Mens French Open Final initially looks a difficult event to extract value from. Rafael Nadal has looked absolutely imperiouus on clay ever since the season started, and odds of 1/5 about him completing the run with another Grand Slam look completely justified - especially considering he has a 16-3 head to head advantage over Stansliav Wawrinka.

That record is probaly flattering him slightly - it's a less impressive 4-3 since 2014 when the back started catching up with the Spaniard. His bounce back to form this season however has shown there is more than a little life in the old dog yet, and we are not even minded to hedge at 9/2 on the Swiss against our outright bet on Nadal.

Instead we head to the specials markets, where it could be worth taking a chance and backing Nadal to serve the most Aces at 7/2.

While he's not the biggest server on the tour, he's been pretty efficient at preventing being aced himself, and that could help him win this particular stats battle.

In major clay competitions this season Nadal has served 47 aces in 368 games (all games - not just service games), while conceeding just 35. Wawrinka has served 56 in 328 games, and had 60 against.

So while Wawrinka is outserving Nadal at a rate of 0.17 per game versus 0.13 per game, the Spaniard is conceeding half as many per game (0.095 per game versus 0.18 per game).

It's fair that Wawrinka should be favourite in this market (he played Isner in those stats of course), but to be as short as 1/6 looks way OTT to us, and the 7/2 is defintiely a value play in this market.

Nadal to serve most aces at 7/2 (money back if tie) with Paddy Power, William Hill

Nadal to serve the first ace at 6/4 with Paddy Power

With such a strong retrun of serve, Nadal has ever chance of ensuring that none of the sets reach a tie-break, and only one of their previous seven matches on clay have ever included a breaker. The 11/10 available on No TieBreak looks a strong bet given both players are capable of regular breaks of serve.

No Tie Break at 11/10 with Bet365

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