Wimbledon 2017

Grass is a truly specialist surface on the ATP Tour, with only a handful of events played on the surface, and just Wimbledon in terms of major events. The limited number of games played on the surface make it a real challenge to apply our usual statistical approaches to, but over the years we've refined our criteria when it comes to crunching the numbers, and seem to be getting somewhere near where we want to be.

Success on grass requires a couple of things. Firstly, a decent serve can get you a very long way. Genuine base line clay courters rarely achieve much success at SW19, and it's notable that Rafael Nadal has a significantly weaker record at Wimbledon than in other slams over his carreer.

You also tend to thrive with a steady serve and volley approach, which has worked for countless champions over the years.

One man who knows that better than most, is of course Roger Federer, and he roared back into winning form by taking down the Gerry Webber on Sunday. Federer has accepted his creaking body has some flaws now, and needs nursing through a demanding tennis season, and comes to Wimbledon fresh from a 10 week break since April. FedEx electing to miss this season's clay events to ensure top fitness for the events he stands the best chance at - and that has to be here.

Who would have thought 12 months ago that Novak Djokovic would be starting as the 4th favourite in a slam, but that's exactly how inconsistent the Serb has become, while Andy Murray has been a little way short of his best recently.

Federer therefore looks excellent value to win this event at odds of 9/4 for a record 8th time. His 6-1 6-3 victory over Alexander Zverev was supremely straight forward and he looked back to his best, coming through the event without dropping a set. That's not just an important sign of his form, but also an important factor in maintaining his peak condition coming to Wimbledon.

We'll be back tomorrow with a slightly further look through the field, as well as looking into a couple of specials markets available. In the mean time, get stuck into Federer is the advice.

2pts Roger Federer to win Wimbledon at 9/4

#Tennis