Horse Whispers

York boasts a decent card on Saturday, with the feature race being the 3.05pm, grade 2 Handicap. 12 go to post in this £30,000 race over 1m 2f and we have a strong fancy for favourite Defoe.

A winner last time out on soft ground at Newbury, Defoe looked commanding in that one, and he looks capable of further improvement - enough to cover a rise of 7lbs.

Roger Varian has a good record over this sort of trip, winning 70 of his 314 starts in flat turf races over 1m 2f - that's yielded a 16pt profit over the sample. That improves to 39 wins from 154 starts when looking at Handicap races with a 25% win rate and a 42pt profit.

There is every reason to like this one and we reckon it could go off much closer to evens than 2/1.

Defoe to win the 3.05pm at York at 2/1

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