Wimbledon Mens Final

The Mens Final takes place on Sunday, and we're in a great position having backed Roger Federer in the Outright market already. He looks in great shape having reached the final without dropping a set. He's also played 60 games fewer than Marin Cilic.

Odds of 2/9 are probably fair about Federer, who has really timed himself to peak perfectly for this event, and despite our confidence he will get the job done, it's hard to justify backing him to win 3-0 against such a big server.

One market which does interest us very strongly is the battle for the most aces. Cilic has served more than double the number of Aces that Federer has managed this tournament, so it's easy to understand Paddy Power taking the view than he is a 1/6 favourite. But taking a little time to understand things from a different angle actually suggests Federer is a great play in this market at 7/2.

Firstly, Cilic has played far more games in this tournament than Fed - 230 compared to 170. His game is also all about Aces, and he's played Gilles Muller and Sam Querrey, allowing him to boost his numbers artificially. More importantly however is the Aces against stat. Federer is a much better receiver than he will generally meet on tour, and he is rarely beaten without at least getting something on the ball. As a result Federer is aces roughly 30% lower than Cilic over the long run.

4pts Federer to serve the most aces at 7/2 (stakes back if its a draw) with Paddy Power.

#Tennis