Spain Women v Portugal Women

Without wishing to suggest any sort of foul play, it's certainly been a hugely interesting draw for the UEFA Womens Europeam Championship's hasn't it? England v Scotland, Sweden v Germany, Austria v Switzerland, Holland v Belgium, Spain v Portual..... the list goes on. Whichever way you cut it, there have been some enormously interesting European rivalries, and whatever you believe, its got to be good for interest in the Women's game.

Anyway, this one's about Spain and Portugal, so without further ado lets jump into it.

Spain are ranked 13th in the world - so the ladies have a little bit of work to catch up with the men. The good news in this game however is that Portugal are ranked just 38th, and should be among the easiest opponents they face this competition.

The last time the pair met, Spain ran out 4-1 winners, and the stats suggest it may be a similar sort of outcome.

When looking at Spains results against sides ranked 28th-48th, they are 9-2-0 over the past three season, while Portugals record versus sides of Spain's ability (6th-20th) is a less impressive 2-1-14. We should expect Spain to win therefore, and the odds of 1/12 on them do to so give little room to play.

Instead we should consider what an expected scoreline might look lilke. Over those two samples, Spain have won by an average 2.2 goals to 0.3 conceeded, while for Portugal, they have lost by an average 0.8 goals to 2.5. Fair to say over the long haul, we might expect a result of Spain 2.25, Portugal 0.55 based on that then?

Assuming that's fair, then the odds on Portugal scoring a goal (and not more) seem pretty fair at 12/5. Games have been tight throughout, and if Portugal do get one, its likely they will defend that lead.

Portugal to score Exactly One Goal at 12/5 with BWIN

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