Sweden Women v Russia Women

Russia exceeded all expectations when they upset Italy in the opening group (and landed us a nice couple of winners in the process!), but they could find Sweden too hot to handle on Friday. With Sweden ranked 9th in the World Rankings, and Russia 25th, there is quite a class difference in this one.

Sweden have an excellent record against sides ranked between 20th and 30th over the past, winning all 10 matches that fell into that category over the past three seasons. Extending the criteria slightly to include the matches played against sides 17th-30th gives them 11 wins in 13 starts – 10 of those without conceding a goal.

When it comes to Russia, they have lost eight of their nine against sides ranked between 5th and 15th over the past three seasons, so they clearly struggle to step up in class, conceding an average of 3.1 goals in that sample.

Sweden gave a good account of themselves against Germany to grab a draw, and know a decent result in this one would really give them an excellent chance of qualification. We expect an easy win – probably including a clean sheet, but at 4/7 the “win to nil” doesn’t appeal.

Instead, we’re going to try to hit the correct score for a big price. Of the samples we looked at, five of Russia’s nine criteria matching games ended up 3-0 or 4-0 to their opponents, while five out of 13 hit the same for Sweden. Combined, that makes ten out of 22 (although we double count one match between the sides). At odds of 11/2 for a 3-0 outcome, and 11/1 for a 4-0 outcome, they are interesting enough to get involved at with Paddy Power

Sweden to win 3-0 at 11/2 (Bet365)

Sweden to win 4-0 at 11/1 (Bet365)

#HorseRacing