Scotland Women v Portugal Women

Determining exactly how to attack this match from a punting perspective will be absolutely critical if we are to hunt out some genuine value, with a slight clash in terms of what different data is telling us.

Starting with the short term, Scotland were absolutely battered by England, losing 6-0 and barely registering a genuine chance. They did venture forward of course, and forced a few corners, but you never got the feeling a goal was going to come from it. Heads must surely be down, and how they react will be intriguing.

Portugal went down 2-0 to neighbours Spain, and that was probably about par for the course in that fixture - Spain ranked 25 places higher in the official rankings. They are unlikely to feel as deflated as Scotland. In the short term then, perhaps Portugal hold the advantage?

Longer term however, it's very difficult to make any sort of compelling case for the Portuguese. Looking at their record against sides of similar ability to the Scottish (ranked 21st) they don't stack up all that well. Over the past three years, they are 4-3-9 against sides ranked 14th-28th, with an average score line of 1.0 v 1.8 goals. Almost a full goal worse over a sample of 16 matches doesn't bode too well.

Especially when we also factor in how Scotland do against sides like Portugal. They don't play may sides ranked outside the Top 25, so we have to open out the sample slightly, so we looked at matches against sides ranked between 24 and 52 in the world (14 places either side of Portugal's 38th). This sees Scotland recording a three year 7-1-1 record, with an average goal difference advantage of 2.1 v 0.55.

The evidence is compelling, and on a neutral venue, despite a 6-0 reversal against England, we can't resist backing Scotland to win this. They are odds-against at 11/10 and that has to appeal. It could also be worth backing them to win on the (-1) handicap - it's available at 10/3 with William Hill, and would have won in four of Scotland's nine matches above, and 4 of Portugals 16/1.

Scotland to win at 11/10 (General)

Scotland to win on the (-1) handicap at 10/3 (William Hill)

#Football