Championship Early Season Review

Among our early season advice, we picked Ipswich to struggle this campaign. Four wins later, and that advice is already beginning to look like money down the drain, but there are enough metrics to suggest that the Tractor Boys are still in for a tough season, and we remain firmly against Mick McCarthy’s side.

So why are we so confident they remain a poor side? Well it’s all in the shot data, which can be relied upon historically to provide an excellent estimation about how a side is likely to continue to perform. Thus far, Ipswich have been “outshot” 82 to 34, while they have managed just 11 on target to 25 against. It’s a curious conversion rate, which has propelled the Suffolk side to joint top, but is one which looks absolutely certain to regress to the mean as the season progresses. Sides and players simply do not sustain the conversion rates Ipswich are achieving.

Four games in and it’s fair to start assessing who is going well, and who might be in for a difficult time, and we’ll start at the head of the table.

Neil Warnock is about as experienced as they come, and he should be confident that his Cardiff side have a great season ahead of them. Maximum points already from four games is a great start, but he’ll be more pleased that they have deserved those points.

We’ve already mentioned Ipswich, who will surely fall away sooner rather than later, while Wolves are also being well fancied after heavy spending in the summer and a bright start. Some of those wins have been tighter than you might think though, while Forest and Leeds don’t excite sufficiently. That means Cardiff have a decent head start on some of the likely contenders, such as Middlesbrough for example, and they make plenty of appeal at 7/2 to be promoted.

1pt Cardiff to be promoted at 7/2 with Bet365

Fulham are third favourites to be promoted, which looks insane in our view. With just one win in their opening four games they haven’t lit the touch-paper yet. They’ve managed just nine shots on target over those matches - fewer than anyone other than Burton - so why the market loves their chances quite so much is a real surprise. They certainly aren’t the worst outfit of course - part of the reason for their woeful shot data was the time they spent playing with 10 men against Reading - but haven’t convinced me that last season was anything but very lucky and the 10/3 on them finishing in the bottom half with Sky Bet looks a cracking bet.

2pts Fulham to finish in the bottom half at 10/3

One side who find themselves at the wrong end of the table despite a reasonably proficient start are Millwall. Only Brentford have created more chances than the Lions so far this season, so it’s a harsh reflection of their attacking desires that they find themselves with just a point in the bank and 2nd from bottom. With a shot ratio of 68% they have started brightly enough and should surely be much further up the table. It’s a speculative bet, but the 7/1 available on them finishing inside the top half as the season progresses seems too big to us.

1pt Millwall to finish in the top half at 7/1

Finally, staying near the bottom, Burton are 21st after their first four games, and there is plenty of money backing the Staffordshire side to be relegated - a pile of money we reckon is worth adding to. That poor start is completely backed up by their shot data - 24 shots for compared to 75 against, and of those they have resulted in 8 Shots On Target For, and 28 against. If that continues, relegation looks highly likely. They’ve had a tough start of course - playing Cardiff, Middlesbrough and Hull already, but with Sheffield Wednesday and Norwich on the horizon as well, it’s likely to get worse before they have an opportunity to improve. Back Burton to go down is the advive.

3pts Burton to get relegated at Evens

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