US Open - Mens Day 6

The bookies are struggling to split Damir Dzumhur and Andrey Rublev, and it's easier to understand why, with both players showing great form lately.

Dzumhur reached the Winston-Salem final last time out of course, winning three matches as outside, so it was certainly something unexpected. He beat Gilles Simon and Kyle Edmund in that run, and it followed up a final appearance in a clay challenger at Santo Domingo and a semi-final in Los Cabos. He's doing very well in short. The one doubt is is rather modest form on hard courts - he is just 61-45 for his career so far and 13-14 against Top 100 players over the past two seasons.

Rublev is also a man in decent form. He won the Umag Clay event in July, and has cruised past Aljaz Bedene and Grigor Dimitrov already this week without dropping a set - a feat which shouldn't be underrated. He's never been shy of playing on hard courts, and looks more at home on the surface than Dzumhur, so despite his tender years (he is still just 19), we are backing the Russian to come out on top here. With an 11-6 winning record against top 100 players on hard courts, he has every reason to fancy his chances.

1pt Andrey Rublev to beat Damir Dzumhur at 5/6 (General)

We also like the look of Roberto Bautista-Agut when he meets Juan Martin Del Potro on Saturday. It's another match where the bookies aren't making either man a hot favourite, but the market is already starting to warm to the Spaniard - a view we strongly agree with.

Bautista-Agut has a 79.5% hold rate v Top 100 players on hard courts this season, and a 32.2% break rate. That gives him a theoretically combined strength score of 111.7%.

Del Potro has been serving insanely well, winning 86.1% of service games, but his return game has looked less solid - winning just 20% of games, and therein could lay the determining factor in this match. Del Potro has a combined game win rate of 106.1% and that is a full 5% lower than his oppenent. In matches like this, where things can turn on a moment, it's a considerable edge, and it doesn't feel sufficiently factored into the 10/11 posted by BoyleSports about his chances.

1.1pts Roberto Bautista-Agut to beat Juan Martin Del Potro at 10/11 (Boyle Sports)

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