International Picks - Free Tips

We wrote a little about using Elo rankings to help guide our judgement of international sides yesterday, and it helped us pick out Wales as winners over Austria. Here are today's ratings, and the theoretical Draw No Bet prices as a guide.

One team who leap off the page immediately are Estonia, and we believe visitors Cyprus may be getting over-rated on the basis of a couple of decent looking results over the past couple of years.

They have won home and away against Gibralter, which immediately massages the figures, while they have also registered wins against Kazakstan and Bosnia recently.

Estonia however are traditionally a slightly more capable outfit than the Cypriots, and will still surely end the group in a high position. The Elo ratings put them 19 places higher in the international rankings - while the FIFA Rankings make Cyprus the better side by four places! Our inclination is the Elo are more correct, which gives us our first bet today.

1pt Estonia to beat Cyprus at 9/5 (General)

Heading South, Greece have been performing reasonably well in recent years and don't warrant being such big outsiders when they welcome Belgium to Athens. Despite taking a point home with them when the pair met in Belgium, the bookmakers are quoting Greece at longer than 5/1, while Belgium are odds on here.

Of course the favourites have a host of options available to them, but at what point do we ask for a real return on potential?

Greece can be backed at 7/5 on the +0.5 Asian Handicap, which will pay as a winner if they win or draw, and that looks a solid odds-against play in this one in a match that could be very tight throughout.

1pt Greece +0.5 v Belgium at 7/5 (General)

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