Mens Quarter Finals - Wednesday

Few things excite us as much as when we find a great value bet, and can understand exactly why the bookmakers have misjudged the price. It gives us confidence that we know something that they haven't considered, and the match between Roger Federer and Juan Martin Del Potro gives exactly that scenario.

Aces are a market they only dip into occassionally, and that could be costly on this occassion. In fact, we're rolling out our bet of the tournament so far today.

Federer and Del Potro both serve a pretty similar number of aces against their opponents. On hard courts this season that equates to just below 12% of service points for Federer, and marginally lower for Del Potro. Nothing too significant though.

Look a bit deeper though, and you find that Federer is much better when stood at the other end of the court. He gets something on a far higher proportion of his opponents serve. Del Potro is aced at a rate of 13.7% of points against him - this highest of any player in the top 50. Federer by contrast is one of the most efficient men around - he is aced just 5.3% of the time - and therein lays the reason that he has out-aced Del Potro in each of their nine meetings since 2012.

9pts Federer to serve more aces than Del Potro at 4/6 with Paddy Power.

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