Home Advantage - How much is it worth?

We mentioned in a recent column about the home advantage enjoyed by MLS sides, and how it can be a much bigger boost than elsewhere. With three home tips coming up over the next few hours in the MLS this weekend, we thought it pertinent to give you sight of a few numbers which back-up our thoughts, and hopefully help you judge what should be reasonable odds when assessing football matches around the world.

Generally speaking, it's true that the further down the divisions you go, the less home advantage tends to play out. One logical conclusion could be that the bigger grounds offer a much bigger crowd lift for the sides who occupy the big stadia. Of course, as you drop down the divisions, travelling budgets slip, making long trips less comfortable and more rushed. Whatever the reason's behind it, here is the data anyway!

England

Starting with up and down the divisions in England, the pattern is really clear. The table below is taken from the last five years of matches over the relative divisions and show the % of home wins, draws and away wins.

The professional leagues line up quite nicely, although the non-league don't seem to play quite so nicely to the script. League Two certainly stands out as one where away sides are likely to perform well on a cosistent basis - home sides collect just 0.23 points more, on average, than their visitors, while in the Premier League the different is 0.46 pts!

Scotland

We shouldn't get carried away with the correlation of quality, as when we look north of the border is reverses immediately!

It is however worth noting that while the home wins have reversed, the away wins show a similar pattern courtesy of some differences in the draw proportion - who know that a draw in Scottish League 1 was a 4/1 shot on average?

Rest of the World

So the bit you've been waiting for. The MLS.

The MLS has a massive differentiation compared to anyway - not only does it have the highest % of home wins, but a massive 4%, but it also adds in draws at a rate than hugely drops the away wins figure - worth bearing in mind if you bet on Asian Handicaps. A home side in MLS collects almost double the points than an away side manages over the course of a season - 0.84 pts more per game! Elsewhere there are a few surprises - such as Austria - a comparitively small country featuring so high up the list.

Anyway, hopefully you've seen the logic in some of our MLS picks, and have a useful reference chart in the future. A Premier League match sees the home side roughly a 5/4 shot if all other things are equal, with the away side 12/5, while in the MLS, you're talking nearer 10/11, with the away side 7/2.

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