US Open - Men's Semi Finals

The Mens event reaches the semi-finals tonight as Kevin Anderson meets Pablo Carreno Busta and Rafael Nadal plays Juan Martin Del Potro. 

Anderson looks a touch short at 4/9 in the first match, but it's hard to find a reason to oppose him really. While Carreno Busta has had a pretty decent path into the semis, and hasn't done much wrong, Anderson is much the more comfortable player on the surface and we really should expect to see a regression to the mean occuring soon, which would see Anderson prevail under usual scenarios.

It's not enough to trigger a bet, and we're equally not comfortable calling a bet about the winner of Nadal v Del Potro, with the 4/11 quotes reflecting Nadal's impressive tournament and overall pedigree, but Del Potro doing well enough to suggest an upset would be too surprising. The odds look about right. 

The specials are where it is at once again, and we fancy the 11/4 offered by Sky Bet on Nadal serving more than Del Potro. Nadal serves, on average, 2.2% of his service points as double faults, while Del Potro is nearer the 3.2% mark. 

We'll save you doing all the calculations, but based on around 7.3 points per service game, and 38 games being played in the match, Del Potro may fire down about 3, while Nadal might be closer to 4. That's only an average of course, and with low numbers like this, varience could be proportionally very high. 11/4 on Nadal serving the most double faults looks too long to us in what isn't too far from the flip of a coin. The bet with Sky Bet would be a loser if the double fault count was a tie.

1pt Nadal to serve most double faults at 11/4

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