Championship Best Bets

Let's start at Portman Road, and regular readers probably won't be surprised to see us positioning our weekend profits against Ipswich Town in this one. While they opened the season with four straight league wins, the metrics sitting underneath those successes suggest there was a very significant dollup of fortune helping them along the way.

They are odds-on favourites to beat rock-bottom Bolton, but there may not be a great deal between the sides, and this presents Bolton with a great chance to collect what could be some rare away points this campaign. To this point, Ipswich have managed 52 shots on goal, for 121 against, and 15 on target and 40 against. To see them boasting a 10-8 goal difference is clearly not how we should expect things to continue.

Bolton are also pretty bad, but not bad enough to be bottom really. They have a 65-74 ratio on shots, and 20-28 on target. They are surely good enough to steal something from this trip.

1pt Bolton +0.5 Goals with Ladbrokes at 19/20

Elsewhere, we aren't expecting a thriller at Burton when Fulham visit, and our model sugests there is considerable value in the Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.

Eight of Fulhams last nine games have ended with two or fewer goals, and neither side are producing the sort of football which is likely to lead to a 4-3 type result right now.

Burton have managed just 44 shots in seven matches - an average of just 6.3 per game against a wider league average of 12.9 per match, so they are unlikely to contribute too many to the total - they've found the back of the net just four times so far this campaign and are looking more and more certain to face the drop by the week. Get stuck into the Under Goals bets on this one is the advice.

1pt Under 2.5 Goals at Burton v Fulham at 11/10 (BetStars)

1pt Under 1.5 Goals at Burton v Fulham at 10/3 (BetStars)

Continuing the slightly negative theme, we also expect a tight match at Bramall Lane when Sheffield United host Norwich.

So far, five of the Blades seven matches have gone under 2.5 goals, and Norwich are a side they will surely prepare for with a decenlt slice of respect, and the same could be true in reverse.

Daniel Farke was understandably unimpressed with his Norwich side's defendings at Millwall a few weeks ago, and responded by going back to basics against Birmingham and Burton, winning 1-0 in the former, and drawing 0-0 after that. Expect a similar sort of defensive focus here.

Sheffield United's last four matches have looked solid enough in the Championship, with clean sheets against Barnsley and Bolton, and just a single goal conceeded against each of Sunderland and Derby.

1pt Under 2.5 Goals at Sheffield Utd v Norwich at Evens

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