League One Tips

"The shot data makes Southend a decent bet at Fleetwood, but we're going to resist backing a side who haven't won since the opening day of the season. While they are arguably been unfortunate not to collect more points so far, heads will surely be low, and we'll stick Southend clearly on the list of teams to start backing quickly once they find a result. It could just be this weekend at 21/10, but we aren't brave enough to go in just yet!......"

Well, we feel pretty silly now having written the above on Saturday's preview only to see them romp through 4-2 winners. We're going to stick to our promise though, and start backing them, as William Hill's 11/10 just looks too long against an ordinary looking AFC Wimbledon.

Only Wigan have a better shot ratio that Southend this season (137 v 87) and the 17 goals the Shrimpers have conceeded is significantly above what they might reasonably have expected from the supporting data. In short, they probably haven't had the rub of the green just yet and could be set to shift up the gears, and up the table. They look an altogether better side that AFC Wimbledon, so with home advantage in midweek, the 11/10 looks great value.

2pts Southend to beat AFC Wimbledon at 11/10 (Will Hill)

Oxford look worth a small bet when they take on Bury at Gigg Lane. The sides have opened 2017/18 in much the same way as 2016/17 went, and a repeat of Oxfords home and away wins in this fixture could be on the cards.

With just 87 shots on goal in nine matches, Bury are one of the least effective sides going forward in the division, and there is every chance they occupy one of the relegation spots at the end of the season. Oxford have more chance of being in the promotion hunt at the shap end of the table.

Take Oxford in this at 13/8 - the price is drifting at time of writing, so you might get a bigger price in the morning.

1pt Oxford to beat Bury at 13/8 with Bet365

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