Huddersfield v Tottenham

Sometimes to be a successful punter you need to be prepared to completely alter your view on the basis of new information available, and that's precisely what's happened ahead of this fixture in our eyes.

When we first eyed up Huddersfield at 8/1 at home, it looks a cracking bet against Spurs. 8/1? for a home team? So we started thinking about how the data plays out on matches like this. Based on Sporting Index's points quotes, we have Spurs in to finish around 4th or 5th, and Huddersfield to end with less than 40 points and in relegation trouble. So we explored the past three seasons to see how clubs finishing 3rd-6th did away at sides who failed to reach 40 points.

The data suggest that the match line is about right in fact, despite what the early shot data might suggest. Weaker sides hosting top clubs won just 6 of the 52 fixtures in our sample - 11.5% in fact!

The value it turns out, is in fact for the underdog to keep things tight, but not quite do enough to win. 25% of matches ended in a draw, while 33% ended with the Champions League hopeful's squeezing past by the odd goal. Combined a 58% occurence (an 8/11 shot).

The bookmakers offer 4/1 about a draw in this, or you can get 13/5 about Spurs winning by exactly one goal (by backing on the -1 handicap market) - a combined 47.7% implied chance. Backing the pair means you are getting 11/10 about an 8/11, and that looks a very realistic propostion.

1pt Huddersfield v Tottenham to be a Draw at 4/1 (Bet365)

1pt Tottenham to win by exactly one goal at 13/5 (Bet365)

#Football