Premier League 3pm's

We've been through the Premier League matches three times, and finding any sort of confident value has proved difficult this week, so stakes are going to kept small. We've toyed with including West Ham at a slight shade of odds-on, but as bad as Swansea's overall play has looked at times this season, it's hard to trust West Ham, and we'll find better opportunities to oppose Swansea.

Just the one small bet then this week, where we fancy West Brom to win 1-0 against Watford. Neither side have been hitting the target with anything like the frequency that they need, but have made up for it at the back. Taking the six matches each side has been involved in so far, we'd expect a match with about 3-3.5 shots on target on average - roughly enough to produce a single goal once all the averages play out over a season. That's a small sample of course, and there will surely be more chances as the season progresses, but for now, the sensible play looks to be a very small bet on the 1-0 win.

0.5pts West Brom to win 1-0 against Watford

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