Thursday International Musings

A busy week of International football awaits, so it’s a fair shout that we’ll have to do a bit of the homework to help you through what isn’t as familiar as usual.

We’ll start over in Armenia, where Poland are surely being given too much respect in being offered at no longer than 1/4 to win away from home. Of course things are going very well for the Poles right now, but the home side are available at over 10/1 and that’s a hefty price given there has only been the odd goal between the sides in the last four meetings.

With wins over Kazakhstan and Montenegro in this campaign, they have to have a chance in this, and an Asian +1.5 Line at odds against looks the play at 6/5. We’d win with a draw or a single goal defeat on that bet.

1pt Armenia (+1.5) to beat Poland at 23/20 (Bet365)

In the same group, Montenegro won away at Denmark earlier in the group, and they could just do the double. There is nothing to split the sides in Group E, with them locked together on points, goal difference and goals scored and it’s hard to really understand how the hosts are as long as 13/5 to win this one, with Denmark close to even money.

The Elo ratings make Montenegro around a 2/1 shot in this match, and we’d be inclined to believe that’s a little nearer the mark than the bookies given the home advantage and the improvement we are seeing in them recently.

1pt Montenegro to beat Denmark at 5/2 (General)

Finally, another outsider, Malta should be given a chance against a pretty woeful Lithuania. The visitors have lost by 3, 4, 1, 2, 3, and 4 in their last six matches. Malta’s recent 4-0 drubbing by England wasn’t as bad as it appeared on paper - they were still at 0-1 in the 85th minute before things quickly caved in.

Malta have shown enough over the past couple of years to suggest they can keep things tight enough here - they drew 1-1 in Estonia, beat Ukraine 1-0 and drew with Azerbaijan and Moldova.

Malta can be backed at 4/5 with a +1 start, meaning we collect with a draw or a home win. It looks fair enough, and gets the nod in this one.

1pt Malta (+1) to beat Lithuania at 4/5 (Betfair)

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