World Cup Qualifiers - Central America

In Central America, a very similar story to the Brazil script exists when Mexico go to Honduras. We have a side who have already qualified (and in some style with a 6-3-0 record so far) who might be taking it easy against a far inferior rival. Our ratings make Mexico a strong favourite in this one under usual scenarios, and whilst we need to adjust them slightly for the fact that a couple of the Mexican stars have been rested, they are still likely to be far too strong for the minnows who have only beaten Trinadad and Tobago in qualifying, so their 10 pts probably looks a little fortunate.

Mexico, team news adjusted look slightly bigger than 50/50 to win this match in our view, so odds of 11/5 with Boyle Sports are absolutely massive and deserve a big stake tonight. Whilst we may see players rested, the reserves are fighting for their World Cup plane tickets and this match is surely priced up wrong.

4pts Mexico to beat Honduras at 11/5

Finally, on a night of heavy staking at big odds, we like Costa Rica in the in their match at Panama. The visitors are already qualified but are much the better side than Panama, who need a win here.

All things being equal, and motivation and teams being at full strength, we would have be pricing up Costa Rica as slight favourites in this match in Panama - something like 13/8 in the match betting. The market reaction to the situation however makes the visitors 11/2 and that’s just too much of a correction for the scenario ahead in our view.

This looks another example of the price over-reacting to the situation, and for relative minnows in the game, the complacency isn’t likely to reflect how we might expect the bigger nations to drop their hands. Pride is at stake, and Costa Rica will surely go for this.

1pt Costa Rica to beat Panama at 11/2

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