Burnley v Newcastle

It's 10th v 8th in the Premier League this Monday as Burnley entertain Newcastle, and it's a right old puzzle to figure out.

On the one hand, Burnley's 10th place is a terrific achievement after nine games considering they have already played away at Chelsea (W), Spurs (D), Liverpool (D) and Man City (L). They should be settling in for a nice run of points not those tricky ones are behind them.

Newcastle have started equally well, and are a point and a couple of places ahead in the table. They have played Spurs (home defeat) and Liverpool (home draw), so Burnley are arguably better off at this point.

The shot data however suggest Burnley are a much weaker side. After nine matches they have registered 88-168 against their opposition and 24-48 when looking at on target efforts. Newcastle for comparison are 116-102 and 42-27 on target. Newcastle should be better though given the opponents they have faced though right? We'll lets take the Top 6 clubs out of the equation and see where we are at.

That leaves five matches for Burnley and a shot tally of 54-71 and 12-18 on target. And four of those matches have been at home.

Removing the big six recalibrates Newcastle to 102-67 and 37-19 on target from seven matches. With four of those away and three at home. That all points to Newcastle coming out on top in games between sides of this sort of ability in our eyes, and odds of 17/10 are long enough to justify a small play on Newcastle in this one.

1pt Newcastle to beat Burnley at 17/10

#Football