Championship Best Bets

We'll start our run through the Championship card at Burton, where Barnsley can get a much needed win on the board. They carved out a good point in the Yorkshire derby against Sheffield Wednesday and the shot data after the first 14 matches suggests they should be the stronger side in this by some distance.

Thus far this season, Burton have a 113-219 shot count versus their opponents and just 32-75 as far as the on-target counts go. Barnsley are a more convincing 176-204 and 59-70 on target. Three points between the sides surely flatters a poor Burton who are actually -20 in the goal difference column already.

Burton's recent results have seen them lose at home to Ipswich (in fairness they probably deserved more), fail to score at either Nottingham Forest or Bristol City and lose home matches to Wolves and Aston Villa - both 4-0.

1pt Barnsley to beat Burton at 2/1 (General)

QPR did us proud on Saturday, beating Wolves at odds of 13/5, and we're going to back them again to get a second win in four days against table toppers.

Sheffield United have adjusted to the Championship perfectly, and took Wolves' top spot at the weekend, but the underlying data suggests they have been hugely efficient at converting their chances - something which is difficult to sustain indefinitely. Only three sides in the division have a lower Goals:Shots Ratio (7.8) - and the shots data for the Blades would project a level goal difference of around 15-15 goals - so their 20-12 achieved so far looks a touch fortunate, with results to match.

QPR on the other hand have been particularly wasteful - and history suggests that will regress towards the mean and see their goals tally begin to rise.

With a decent home record (4-2-1) for QPR, and Sheffield United losing three of their seven away matches so far, odds of 7/4 about the hosts represent good value in our book.

1pt QPR to beat Sheffield United at 7/4 (General)

Finally it's interesting to see Fulham rated as an odds-on shot when they welcome fourth placed Bristol City to Craven Cottage.

The hosts have won just once in seven matches at their own place this season, and face a side with just one away defeat in seven matches so far!

Looking at recent form makes the prices even harder to reason with - the Robins have lost just once in 15 matches now - a run which has included wins at Sunderland, Ipswich, Reading and Watford, and further away points at Wolves and Norwich.

It's tempting to take Bristol City on the handicap to minimise risks, but this match feels like it could be worth taking a bigger gamble, and we'll back the visitors to win outright at 14/5.

1pt Bristol City to beat Fulham at 14/5

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