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Europa League Best Bets

  • Writer: Dave Pilgrim
    Dave Pilgrim
  • Nov 1, 2017
  • 2 min read

We've dived back into our latest Elo Ratings for a run down on the Europa League matches on Thursday. Here's what we've whittled it down to.

Villarreal travel to Slavia Prague, and they look good value at 11/8 to beat the Czech side after just two defeats in their last 12 matches - a record which is arguably better than that in fact given one of those reversals was in the Copa del Rey where the Yellow Submarine fielded a reserve side. Last time out saw Villarreal gain a credible draw with Atletico Madrid and are comfortably in 6th place in the table.

Slavia Prague have been in decent form themselves, but there is a big difference between winning in La Liga and winning in the Czech league. On the Elo ratings, there is over 200pts between the sides, and that makes Villarreal value.

1pt Villarreal to beat Slavia Prague at 11/8

Istanbul Basaksehir FK could be getting underrated against the more fashionable German side Hoffenheim. The standard 100pt home advantage on European Elo scores is probably a little higher for matches in Turkey and we'll go as far as suggesteding we make the hosts favourites in this one - a big statement given they are 12/5 outsiders.

They have already beaten Club Brugge in the Champions League qualifiers, and only fell out of the competition 4-3 on aggregate to Sevilla.

On the opposite side we have Hoffenheim - a side with just one win in their last seven (admitedly against Istanbul in the reverse fixture) and just one away win since the season proper got underway. There simply has to be a chance of the Turks coming through this one and the price is too long to ignore.

1pt Istanbul Basaksehir FK to beat Hoffenheim at 12/5

If you read us regularly, you'll know we rarely bet on odds-on certs, so another outsider who could have a chance of a result are Austria Vienna when they visit Rijeka.

Rijeka are third in the Croatian League, but have lost four of their last six in all competitions now and could be vulnerable in this one.

Our ratings make the sides roughly equal on a neutral venue, so the 4/9 on offer about Rijeka looks extremely short, despite home advantage and the fact they beat Vienna a fortnight ago 3-1 away, so it's probably worth taking the 15/8 with Betfair Sportsbook on Vienna with a goal headstart on the handicap.

1pt Austria Vienna (+1) to beat Rijeka at 15/8

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