Premier League Best Bets

Only two sides outside the Big Six can boast a positive shot ratio over their opponents this season in the top flight. Southampton (54% of shots) and Newcastle (53%), and when it comes to shots on target, Saints drop off that list as well, leaving just Newcastle in the top company (50-32)

Of course, Newcastle are fortunate to have only played Spurs and Liverpool so far (both at home), but the above statistic does show they are more than capable of matching the also rans in the division, and they should be backed to beat Bournemouth on Satuday at even money.

Everyone wants to see the Cherries pick up. Eddie Howe is a likeable guy, and the club seem a great honest outfit. The fact is however, at the moment they aren't performing, and the underlaying data supports their league position. just six goals scored so far, and 14 conceeded are a result of the second lowest shots on target achieved this campaign of any side in the division.

2pts Newcastle to beat Bournemouth at evens

Our other pick in the Premier League are Watford as they make the trip north to Everton. We don't need to tell anyone about the issues up at Goodison of course, and David Unsworth is probably already looking forward to is all ending soon with the appointment of a new man - rumoured to be a boardroom shoot out between Sam Allardyce and Sean Dyche.

It's hard to fault Unsworth for leaving some of his more senior players at home for Thursday's match at Lyon, but a 3-0 thrashing could have further damaged confidence among the players who did play, and the side have now not won since last September and haven't kept a clean sheet at home since the start of the season.

Watford's early exit from the EFL Cup, and the fact they have had league only commitments means they have already played half as many games as Everton (11 v 20), but they have already won away matches at Bournemouth, Southampton and Swansea. They also took all the points against Arsenal and draw with Liverpool.

There are enough reasons to consider the Hornets value at odds of 13/5

1pt Watford to beat Everton at 13/5 (General)

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