Newcastle v Watford

Watching Watford v West Ham last Sunday, the Hornets looked superb - moving the ball quickly and meaningfully against a frustrated looking foe. It was another step in an excellent season so far that saw them reach the 18 point mark, and you get the feeling they are probably more than half way to safety already at the 12 game mark.

It's a similar story for Newcastle, who have 14 on the board thus far. 13 of those have come from nine games against sides outside the Top 6, and they look pretty dependable themselves, although three defeats in a row now will see the nerves creeping in. Mikel Merino should be back for Newcastle, and it may not be a coincidence that their struggled have occured while he has been out. They have a 50% win ratio with him this season, but just 14% without....

This feels like the sort of match to get them back on the straight and narrow though, and the shot data suggests they should probably be a shade of odds-on for this one. 5/4 is long enough to be our sole pick in the Premier League 3pm's this weekend.

1pt Newcastle to beat Watford at 5/4

#Football