League One - Best Bets

With pickings looking rather slim in the Premier League and the Championship this weekend, League One has served up a rather better set of fixtures.

Having opened the season with five consecutive defeats, Oldham probably represent the most improved side in the section, and they have now put four clean sheets together in succession as they continue their climb up the division. Just two defeats in their last 11 league matches is testament to their tenacity.

Northampton opened the season in identical fashion, but despite their best efforts to breathe fresh life into the season, it’s been a tough task, and they have now failed to score in their last five. With Oldham now playing some of the best football in the division on current form, this could well be a one-sided affair, and the Latics are a confident pick here. We’re backing them to win the match, but also reckon it’s worth a dabble on the handicap markets as well.

2pts Oldham to beat Northampton at 19/20 (General)

1pt Oldham (-1) on the handicap at 13/5 (Betfair Sportsbook)

1pt Oldham (-2) on the handicap at 13/2 (General)

We move on to Bristol Rovers where the Pirates look good value at 11/8 in their match against Southend. It might seem a strange pick given that the pure form line reads nine defeats from their past 11 outings, but dig a little deeper and a slightly different pattern emerges. Two of those defeats came in the EFL Trophy – a competition that the side have treated with reasonable disdain, fielding reserve sides at every opportunity, and they also lost in the FA Cup to an on-song Notts Co. Add in away trips to Scunthorpe, Shrewsbury and Blackburn which have ended in defeat, and you get a wider perspective.

Now we have a team who have won four of their last ten outings (a run which included those three tough away games against top four sides) and whom have recorded a 134-100 shot ratio over those ten games, and a 54-35 record in terms of on-target efforts.

The corresponding numbers from Southend are 113-122 and 36-50, and the Shrimpers have scored just once in their last four away games. They look there for the taking in this one, and Bristol Rovers can get their season back on track.

1pt Bristol Rovers to beat Southend at 11/8

Bury are a 13/8 shot when they face AFC Wimbledon at Gigg Lane, and Chris Lucketti could just be the beneficiary of a squad who have enjoyed a confidence boost under the temporary guidance of Ryan Lowe. The stalwart was unlucky not to be given the role on a full time basis after two wins, two draws and two defeats in his tenure, and Lucketti has continued the improvement with a win and a defeat in their opening two matches. The shot data shows that Bury have now created more efforts on goal, and efforts on target, than any other side in the last ten games in the division. While they still have some work to do at the other end of the pitch, they should be able to benefit greatly over the coming weeks.

AFC Wimbledon are also a side beginning to turn things around, but not nearly as effectively as Bury and it’s difficult to see why the bookies are struggling to split the pair as much as they are. They have a couple of injuries granted, but plenty of names are back in the squad, and the home side represent the value.

1pt Bury to beat AFC Wimbledon at 13/8

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