Liverpool v Everton

As we've written around the Manchester Derby, getting solid value in these sort of fixtures is really difficult, and small stakes are usually the most sensible way of progressing. We've got a couple of fancies though, so we'll dive stright in.

First, draws have been highly prevalent in Merseyside derbies over the year, where loss aversion syndrome seems to play a significant part. Loss Aversion Syndrome occurs in all football matches, meaning the team who is trailing in any given match becomes more likely to score the next goal than they were when the teams were level. The logic being that a team who are losing immediately feel they have more at stake, and up the gears a little.

It's resulted in seven draws in the last 15 Merseyside derbies since 2010, and 13 from 35 going back to the start of the century. In fact, more recently six of the past 10 have ended in draws. The arrival of Sam Allardyce and his well know motivational skills is only likely to help that trend.

The second thing worth considering is goals. Liverpool have proved throughout the season that their phenomenal attacking abilities are impossible to repress - Coutinho, Firminho, Mane and Salah have been on fire all season, and one of the four have scored in 20 of Liverpool's 24 matches. Half of Liverpool's 24 games have seen 4+ goals. It looks a fair bet the same will happen again in a match where neither side will give anything but 100% effort.

1pt Over 3.5 Goals at 29/20 (Betfair Sportsbook)

1pt Match to be a draw at 5/1 (General)

#Football