Man Utd v Man City

We rarely roll out big bets in the Premier League. The likelihood of the market being considerably wrong is slim, and pretty much every piece of information available is widely available to the market makers. Mistakes are few and far between.

We won't be changing ahead of the Manchester Derby, and the main themes have been widely covered in all forms of media.

On the one hand, we have all the arguments for Manchester City - a side looking to make history with a 14th consecutive Premier League victory, and playing with all the swagger and arrogance that they have earnt. Of course there have been a few closer matches lately, but when it's mattered, they have come good by working to the final whistle. They therefore come into this as the 13/10 favourites.

Then you have Man United - going off at what looks a very big 12/5 for a home match. You'll go some to find a time when they've been that price at home to anyone, but they will crucially miss Paul Pogba for this, and no side can cope easily with such a loss.

Finally, the draw is usually overpriced in matches between the top sides, and lands at a rate of around 31% over the long term in matches between the top 6.

So where should our money be going in this one?

The shot data strongly suggests Man City are the value, but we need to be mindful that shot-data rarely rates Jose Mourinho side's as strongly as it should, due to their patient approach and ability to lock games out once a lead has been established.

The gut from our end also says Man City. It's easy to envisage Mourinho asking Man City to attack with the aim of using Lukaku and Rashford on the break. That could back-fire against a team with as much quality on the offence, and we're going to throw a small bet at Man City, and also a single point at the draw/Man City option which has already landed in seven out of 23 games for City this year.

1pt Man City to beat Man Utd at 13/10

1pt Draw/Man City HT/FT at 5/1

#Football