Australian Open Mens

With the draw for the Australian Open made on Thursday morning we can dive a little deeper into the outright markets, and it’s certainly thrown up some interesting prospects.

Roger Federer will probably be the most pleased with the draw, as despite having the likes of David Goffin, Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro in his part, only Milos Raonic stands out as a man who will really be likely to take a challenge to the Swiss. Federer is in the bottom half, and that’s also where Novak Djokovic is located, but there are massive doubts about his opportunity to compete at the very top level this week after such a long time away from competitive tennis.

More specifically, Djokovic is drawn into the 3rd quarter, along with Stan Wawrinka, who would usually be relishing his chances, but looks battered and bruised right now. That could be good news for an outside to spring a surprise into the semi-final, and our shortlist in that battle will be centred around Roberto Bautista Agut, Alexander Zverev and Dominic Thiem, although we might also consider Filip Krajinovic for a really juicy price.

In the top half, Rafael Nadal should be pleased that he will have an opportunity to work his way into the event relatively easily. Diego Sebastian Schwartzman or Marin Cilic are about as tough as his opponents should come ahead of the semi-finals and he should expect to go deep into this event even if he isn’t 100% as a result.

The 2nd quarter looks much harder, with Grigor Dimitrov, David Ferrer, Nick Krygios, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Kevin Anderson and Jack Sock all not without a chance. That looks a pretty interesting group too from a punting perspective.

Our Bets

Quarter 1

It’s all about what you think is going on with Rafael Nadal here. He’s carrying a knee injury and considered not flying to Australia, but he’s here, and came through a couple of exhibitions reasonably unscathed. He wasn’t amazing in either of those however, and at odds-on prices to win his quarter in most places we’ll take an alternative in this section. Our pick here is Marin Cilic who reached the semi-finals at Tokyo, Shanghai and Basel at the end of last season, and again in Pune a week ago and would be well placed to take advantage if Nadal is less than 100%. At 6/1 with Betfred we are taking a punt that things don’t work out for the Nadal knee this week.

Quarter 2

Loads of options here for who might reach the semi-finals, with Nick Kyrgios and Grigor Dimitrov leading the way. Dimitrov is the higher ranked of the pair, and he reached the semi-finals here last season, but he has so far struggled to really confirm his potential at a Grand Slam.

The same could be said of Kyrgios of course, and he’s yet to progress past a quarter finals, but all the under laying stats suggest this could be a great year for the Aussie. With home advantage and a tournament win in Brisbane under his belt (where he beat Dimitrov of course) he has every chance of continuing his climb up the rankings, even if his heart might not always be entirely with the game. For those looking for a longer price, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga could be worth adding in at 16/1 to reach the semis. He’s made at least that stage in six slams in his career, and reached a further nine quarter finals, and Australia is where he has the best win ratio in slams at 77%

Quarter 3

Djokovic has not convinced us of his fitness at this point, and as a result, we’ll look for an alternative at a good price. The market rates Alexander Zverev as the most likely man to take advantage, at around 4/1 to win the quarter, but despite his obvious quality, he has yet to show us anything impressive in Grand Slams and still doesn’t seem to know his preferred surface.

Wawrinka is another doubt in the section, so we’ll take a punt on Roberto Bautista Agut at an attractive 14/1 to win the quarter. He’s one of the best returners in the game, so has the weapons to trouble most opponents so looks decent value.

Quarter 4

Well this looks easy. Federer is the reigning champion, comes into this having won his only warm-up event in Perth, and finished last season with an appearance in the semi-final of the ATP Tour Finals, and wins in both Basel and Shanghai. In fact, careful management of his schedule meant he won pretty much every event he entered - winning Melbourne, Indian Wells and Miami, before a 2nd round exit in Stuttgart, before winning Halle and Wimbledon, runner-up in Montreal and a QF exit in the US Open.

David Goffin, Juan Martin del Potro and Milos Raonic are all in this part, but he won’t fear any of those. You can get 8/11 on Federer in this part and that looks a gift.

Recommended Bets

1pt Marin Cilic to win Quarter 1 at 6/1

1pt Nick Kyrgios to win Quarter 2 at 3/1

1pt Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win Quarter 2 at 16/1

1pt Roberto Bautista Agut to win Quarter 3 at 14/1

3.3pts Roger Federer to win Quarter 4 at 8/11

1pt e/w Nick Kyrgios to win the Australian Open at 16/1

2pts Federer to win the Australian Open at 2/1

#Tennis