Aussie Open Day 3

There are plenty of selections which worth a go over Tuesday/Wednesday night (UK time), so without further ado:

We’ll start with Damir Dzumhur who appeals at odds-against in his match with local lad John Millman with odds of 7/5 widely available. We tipped the Bosnian in the first round, which he negotiated somewhat fortunately, coming from two sets behind, and he’ll be keen to make the most of that break.

The pair have met once before - just three months ago and on similar courts as today in Shenzhen, China. Dzumhur won that one 6-4 7-5, dominating his receiving points, winning 42% of Millman’s service points.

Dzumhur is also the more experienced of the men at this sort of standard, and achieving much better results against Top 100 and Top 50 opponents on hard courts. Get with the Bosnian in this one.

1pt Damir Dzumhur to beat John Millman at 7/5

Our next pick is Gilles Simon as he renews his rivalry with Pablo Carreno-Busta. The Spaniard looks highly vulnerable right now and have lost 12 of his last 14 matches. He arrested that poor run with a win over Wildcard Jason Murray Kubler but needed four sets to beat the local man who isn’t ranked inside the top 200.

Carreno Busta has improved significantly over the past couple of years, but remains a clay court player first and foremost, while Simon has proved over the years he can adapt well to the hard courts. He also comes into this event having won Pune, beating Marin Cilic, Roberto Bautista Agut and Kevin Anderson, so was certainly made to work for that title.

2.5pts Gilles Simon to beat Pablo Carreno-Busta at 4/5

Moving on, Denis Shapovalov is clearly an emerging talent whom Jo-Wilfried Tsonga should be treating with a huge amount of respect (as if he wouldn’t given the outcome when the pair met in the US Open last season which saw Shapovalov win in straight sets), but it’s a surprise to see them as close in the betting as they are at this point.

Tsonga has proved his ability and his stats on hard courts over the season compare really favourably with Shapovalov. Taking their records against the top 100 for example, Tsonga won 69.4% of service points and 37.2% of receiving points (combined 106.6%) while Shapovalov was 65.5% and 34.6% (101.4%). Looking at their Top 50 records shows a similar trend - Tsonga recording 68.4%+35.4% (103.8%) while Shapovalov was 64.8%+34% (98.8%).

3pts Jo Wilfried Tsonga to beat Denis Shapovalov at 4/6

Our next bet isn’t going to win any awards for patriotism, as we back Denis Istomin to beat Kyle Edmund. He’s justifiably the outsider in this one, but whether he should be as long as 2/1 to beat Edmund is another matter, particularly given the Brit was on court for a full four hours in beating Kevin Anderson in the first round. That was an impressive result, but with just 11 places between the men in the rankings, Istomin will fancy his chances of an upset.

The Uzbekistanian won the Chengdu Open back in October and recently banked decent resutls against Damir Dzumhur and Jared Donaldson in Brisbane.

1pt Denis Istomin to beat Kyle Edmund at 2/1

#Tennis