Aussie Open Day 4

If Day 3 saw us attacking a number of favourites, Day 4 is all about the outsiders, and we’ve got our eye on a few with a chance of causing an upset.

Juan Martin del Potro should beat Karen Khachanov with ease, and even money prices on the Argentine winning 3-0 appeal. The pair met last week in fact, which del Potro won 2-0 and Khachanov simply doesn’t have the power to trouble del Potro in this one, and it’s been terrific to see the Argentine really back to his best after such a long time out of the game with injury.

His last six months have seen a final in Auckland (last week), another runner-up in Basel (October), a win in Stockholm (October) and semi-finals in Shanghai and at Flushing Meadows. Only Federer, Nadal, Bautista Agut, and Isner have beaten him in that spell.

3pts del Potro to beat Khachanv 3-0 at Evens

Alexander Zverev enjoyed a meteoric rise up the rankings last season, with tournament wins in Montreal and Washington the highlight, but recent results have been less impressive and it’s just possible Peter Gojowczyk could make things tough for the German.

Gojowczyk has the returning ability to keep in this game - indeed he won an incredible 50% of receiving points against Mikhail Kukushkin, and anything approaching that level of performance in this one would see him go close at the very least.

Of course, Zverev hasn’t reached number 4 in the world for nothing, so we’ll split our stakes on the brave upset bet, and a more sensible angle on the handicap.

0.5pts Gojowczyk to beat Zverev at 5/1

1pt Gojowczyk +6.5 games at 1/1

We backed Evgeny Donskoy in the first round, and we’re going to keep faith with the Russian when he plays Fabio Fognini. The Italian has a terrible record here - winning just 33% of games over 10 visits and has crashed out in the first two rounds in all but one visit.

The temperamental Fognini possesses more experience in this sort of battle, but his past season stats this should be close. While Fognini has the better return game, his serve is not a hugely dangerous weapon and it could be a balanced encounter. The odds simply don’t reflect that however, so we are duty bound to have a play on the Russian.

2.5pts Donskoy to beat Fognini at 14/5

Finally, Marton Fucsovic is up to a career high of 80th now, and last season’s stats suggest he could be closer to Sam Querrey than the odds suggest. He won 46% of receiving points against Radu Albot in the first round, which was encouraging, and that’s exactly what the Hungarian’s game is built around - indeed last season in his five matches against Top 50 players on Hard Courts he won 41.7% of points.

Querrey has a decent serve of course, but a 4/11 shot he surely is not. Without a warm up event, he reached the second round easily, but in all honesty that was as much to do with Lopez being poor than Querrey being at his best.

1pt Fucsovic to beat Querrey at 11/4

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