Aussie Open Day 5

Regular followers will know how importantly we rate a players comfort on a given surface in our tennis picks, so it might come as something of a surprise to see our first pick being Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in his match with Alexandr Dolgopolov.

Schwartzman is more known for his clay court prowess, but he hasn't risen to 26th in the world without talent to back up his efforts, and he has a close to 50% strike rate against Top 50 players on hard courts - comparing pretty nicely to that of Dolgopolov who is 11-20 over the past two seasons.

Schwartzman edged past Dusan Lajovic in the first round, but his long term return statistics show him as one of the best receivers in the game - behind just Andy Murray in fact over the past 52 weeks and that gives him a huge chance to upset Dolgopolov. He's actually won 41% of points on return against Top 50 players on hard courts over the past season.

Add in just how low Dolgopolov was on his 1st serve % (52%) against Haider-Maurer in the first round and we have ourselves an odds-against bet which looks worth backing.

1pt Schwartzman to beat Dolgopolov at 11/10

#Tennis