Premier League Darts - Wk 2

We head to Wales for the second round of the first phase in the Premier League with a few questions to begin answering.

Can Rob Cross bounce back from his 7-2 thrashing at the hands of Michael van Gerwen?

Can Simon Whitlock continue to turn on his world class finishing that saw him hit an 87.5% check out rate in Dublin?

Will Gary Anderson and Michael Smith turn up this week?

Match 1 - Michael Smith v Daryl Gurney

Gurney was superb on the opening night, drawing 6-6 with Raymond van Barneveld, and he’ll come into this pretty confident of getting some sort of result against Michael Smith. You never really know what you’re going to get with Smith, but it’s fair to say Gary Anderson let him off last week, and he’s lucky to have two points banked after that one.

This is 5th v 11th in the World Rankings, and it’s the 13/10 available about Gurney looks decent enough in our eyes.

Given he’ll be throwing second (and hence on even numbered legs) it’s a surprise to see Stan James offering 7/1 on him winning 7-5, and that’s another price we should snap up immediately in case they see sense between now and Thursday evening.

Finally, in this one, we’ll hit the 1st Leg Winning Double Colour market with Unibet, who go 11/25 about it being won on Red. Smith will start with the darts, and the Englishman checks out on Red around 81% of the time. If the leg is a break, then Gurney is around a 64% chance to check out on red, so we won’t lose much of the value. We’d be close to 1/3 about this one.

1pt Gurney to beat Smith at 13/10 (UniBet) 1pt Gurney to win 7-5 at 7/1 (Stan James) 2.5pts 1st Leg Winning Colour Red at 11/25 (UniBet)

Match 2 - Rob Cross v Simon Whitlock

This is a tough one - Cross is the new kid on the block and it’s hard to predict precisely what level he will end up at once he settles into playing at this standard day in day out. Whitlock had an amazing first night, averaging 106 and checking out seven darts from eight attempts. He's always been a good finisher, but even by his standards that was immense.

Our call in this one is for Cross to get his first Premier League win, but it won’t be by a big margin in all likelihood. With the darts in hand, we’re going to back 7-4 on the correct score at 5/1

1pt Cross to win 7-4 at 5/1 (Stan James)

Match 3 - Michael van Gerwen v Peter Wright

MvG was simply awesome against Cross last Thursday, and it would take a brave man to bet against him again. We’re not that brave, and Wright looked all at sea against Gerwen Price. It would be a surprise to see him return here with the same darts in his hand, and he could well get punished.

He does have enough about him to keep things close though, and we’ll chuck a single point at a correct score of 7-4 in anticipating of the Dutchman winning this one with a single break. 5/1 feels fair with Stan James.

1pt MvG to win 7-4 at 5/1 (Stan James)

Match 4 - Gerwyn Price v Gary Anderson

Price showed real bottle to come back against Peter Wright, although to say the Scot was somewhere short of his best in that encounter would be an understatement, and he’ll be hoping Gary Anderson repeats his equally poor showing from Dublin again this week.

Anderson lost 7-5 to Michael Smith that night, and found his doubles difficult to hit after a 19% check-out rate meant he lost legs he should have been winning. He ended up averaging just 82.46 in that match, and a repeat of that would surely see him struggle again. On going back problems have plagued Anderson, and he missed the UK Open matches over the weekend as a result. A cure hasn’t materialised yet, and we’ll be backing Price in this one as a result, He’s 11/4 to win the match with Betfair, while it could also be worth a small dabble on the 7-4 correct score at 10/1 with Stan James

1pt Gerwyn Price to beat Gary Anderson at 11/4 (Betfair) 1pt Gerwyn Price to win 7-4 at 10/1 (Stan James)

Match 5 - Raymond van Barneveld v Mensur Suljovic

Finally, RvB v Suljovic, and the 180s might be the place to head here. Van Barneveld has seen his treble 20 bashing drop off significantly over the past 6 months, and he’s averaging around 0.21 180s per leg now. That used to be closer to 0.30 and it could see Suljovic tie with him on the 180s front.

Our data suggests that Suljovic would, over the long run, be expected to score something like 2.1 180s per match on this format, while Barney is a little higher at 2.4. That’s close enough to give a real chance of a tie, and the 9/2 on offer with Betfair is simply too long about that eventuality in our view.

1pt van Barneveld v Sujovic 180s Level at 9/2 (Betfair)

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