Cheltenham Festival - Day 1 Trends - (Races 1-4)

With the Festival rapidly approaching, the time is coming for preparations to be laid down. Here we take you through the key trends that have sat beneath all the races through the years. Before we do however, there's one big caveat, which it's important to understand. These trends tell us what the winners have looked like - but does not consider whether that trend has under or over performed versus the expected numbers given the make up of the race.

Example:

- 75% of winners of Race X have been aged four or five.

It sounds good of course, but if 95% of the runners in this race over the years were aged four or five, it would actually be a negative. Tread carefully....

Supreme Novices Hurdle

Raced over a shade longer than two miles, this is the festival curtain raiser, and was won in 2017 by 25/1 Labaik, much to the bookies' pleasure.

- 17 of the last 19 winners won last time out

- Irish trained runners have always gone well in this one - winning 11 of the last 16 runnings, and 15 of the last 26.

- 18 of the last 23 winners ran within the last 45 days

- 6 of the last 8 winners came from the first four in the market BUT only 4 of the last 18 horses to SP at 3/1 or shorter have won.

- 12 of the last 14 winners were aged five or six

- 21 of the last 23 winners had raced that calendar year

- Willie Mullins is king here - winning four times since 2007 and three of the past five renewals.

Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase

A straight two miles, tackling 12 fences - this one was won by 1/4 favourite Altior for Nicky Henderson in 2017. Warwick's Kingmaker Chase is usually a pretty solid form guide for this one, so take note there.

- 11 of the last 13 winners had won or been placed over the Cheltenham fences previously.

- 11 of the last 13 winners had previously won a chase at Grade 1 or Grade 2.

- 14 of the last 16 winners returned with an official rating of 142 or above, and five of those winners were the highest rated runner in that renewal. 10 of the last 17 winners have been top or second top rated.

- 16 of the last 17 winners went off at single figure odds.

- Only five favourites have won in the last 24 renwals

- French bred horses have won half of the races over the past two decades.

- Each of the last 27 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out

- 10 of the last 11 winners were aged six or seven

- This is Nicky Henderson territory - he's won the race six times.

Ultima Handicap Chase

Formally known as the William Hill Trophy, this goes over a challenging 3m 1f and entertains Grade 3 runners. The Cleeve Hurdle is a traditional warm-up event for this race.

- 12 of the last 15 winners carried less than 11st

- 14 of the last 18 winners were rated 143 or lower

- 11 of the last 15 winners were in the top four in the betting

- 13 of the last 17 winners were novices or second season chasers

- 7 of the last 13 won last time out

- All six of the previous winners raced with head gear in place.

- Only 2 of 48 runs from 11yo+ have even made the frame

- Paul Nicholls have tried to win this plenty of times, but is still searching after 21 runs.

Champion Hurdle

Run over 2 miles and a handful of yards, this is the big one on day one. Last year it was the turn of Buveur D'air who returned for Nicky Henderson.

- 28 of the last 34 won LTO, and 14 from 15 were placed

- 19 of the last 20 have won in the same calendar year

- There have only been four winners older than 8 in 60 renewals

- 8 of the last 11 were aged 6 or 7

- 18 of the last 25 had previously won at Cheltenham, and 14 of the last 15 had raced here before.

- Willie Mullins is the main man, winning four of the last seven.

- 22 of the last 33 winners were placed in the first four at the previous season's festival (and 12 of the last 15)

- Flat horses have a chance - 13 of the last 22 started out on the flat

- 13 of the last 15 had raced within 50 days

- 12 of the last 15 were rated 159 or higher

- 11 of the last 15 had won at least six times over hurdles

- Of 101 starts, only two five-year-olds have won here since 1985.

- 24 of the last 27 were in the top 6 in the market.

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