Cheltenham Festival - Day 1 Trends (Races 5-7)

Here we cover the most important trends for the closing races on the first day of the Festival.

Before we do however, there's one big caveat, which it's important to understand. These trends tell us what the winners have looked like - but does not consider whether that trend has under or over performed versus the expected numbers given the make up of the race.

Example:

- 75% of winners of Race X have been aged four or five.

It sounds good of course, but if 95% of the runners in this race over the years were aged four or five, it would actually be a negative. Tread carefully....

Mares Hurdle

Raced over 2m 4f, and eligable only for Mares. George Elliott's Apples Jade won in 2017. Getting solid trends in this race is hard given the dominance of Quevega from 2009-2014.

- The favourite has won 7 of the last 10, and two of the remainder were won by the 2nd favourite.

- Only one of the 23 starters to wear headgear have placed.

- Front runners have a poor record in the race

National Hunt Chase

This one if for the stayers - raced over 4 miles, and eyes turn to the amateurs for this one.

- The race has only been won once by a five or six year old in the last 28 years (from 77 runs)

- 9 of the last 12 winners have been aged seven or eight

- 10 of the last 13 winners had run over fences three or four times previously.

- Jonjo O'Neill loves this one, training four winners in the past 14 years.

- 11 of the last 16 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO

- 5 of the last 7 winners were rated 146 or more

Novices' Hurdle Chase

- 9 of the last 13 finished 1st or 2nd LTO

- 7 of the last 11 had won no more than once over fences

- 6 of the last 11 were rated between 133 and 125

- 5 of the last 11 winners were aged seven

- 9 of the 11 winners were held-up

- 11 of the 13 winners were 12/1 or shorter

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