Saturday Euro Round Up

We’ve found enough time to have a very quick dip into the best bets around Europe today, starting in France, where Metz travel to Troyes for a clash between the bottom two sides in Ligue 1. Metz badly need a win here, as the reverse result would leave them at least seven points adrift at the foot of the table. The good news is that they are meeting Troyes at a pretty good time and we believe they have every chance of getting a result from this must-win match.

Troyes have scored just 11 times at home this season in 12 matches, so don’t carry much punch at all (although in fairness they have also been hard to break down, conceding just 11 as well). They have now lost nine of their last 13 matches in all competitions, and that run included a win against non-league FC Still 1930 and a penalty win over St-Etienne.

Metz won just twice in their first 15 matches this season, but are showing signs of improvement having won 5 of their last 15 now. In fact, they have lost just three of their last 11 now, which for a side in so much trouble represents a real change in fortunes. When you consider those defeats came to Montpellier (6th), Marseille (3rd) and Monaco (2nd) as well, it looks even better.

1py Metz to beat Troyes at 13/5 (Bet365) - match kicks off at 7pm UK time.

Staying in France, Montpellier look a decent shout when they ost Guingamp. With just three defeats at home all season, they solid enough on their own patch, but our shot data actually suggests they have been unlucky not to achieve even better results so far this season. Their last 18 in all competitions shows 8-6-4 (W-D-L) with two of those reversals coming away at PSG and Monaco, so they are clearly in their best form of the season.

Guingamp have now failed to score in their last three matches, and have just a solitary win in their last six, losing four of those. They certainly look vulnerable when playing the better sides, having lost all seven away matches to top half sides this season. Back the hosts in this one is the advice.

2pts Montpellier to beat Guingamp at 4/5 (Will Hill) - 7pm

Our final stop in the trek around Europe sees us arrive on the Southern coast of Spain, when Valencia could enjoy their visit to rock-bottom Malaga.

At first glance, this is two seriously out of form sides facing off - Malaga without a win in 8, and Valencia losing six of their last seven and four on the bounce away from home. Did a little deeper though, and you can easily explain away plenty of the negatives about Valencia and talk yourself into a small play.

Yes, they have lost six from seven, but with Barcelona beating them 1-0 and 2-0, Atletico edging a 1-0 win in Madrid and Real Madrid beating them 4-1, they have played the very best sides since Christmas. Those results all came in a tremendously busy 12 day period as well, which is surely too much for the players at this stage of the season.

Looking at Malaga, they just don’t get enough goals to be a threat to anyone, failing to score in seven of their last eight matches. Opponents who have shut them out have included Las Palmas, Getafe, Espanyol, Alaves and Real Betis, so we aren’t talking about world beaters by any stretch.

We’ll back Valencia here, but we’ll stretch the odds a little and back Valencia to win and Under 3.5 Goals - they have only scored more than twice on two occasions this season, so it seems a good way to add a little juice into the price.

1pt Valencia to win+Under 3.5 Goals at 17/10 (Betway)

#Football