Premier League

Starting at Turf Moor, Burnley are surely being underrated at 9/4 for their match against Southampton - a side who we shouldn't forget are actually in the relegation zone and have won just twice away from home all season!

It's likely the market is paying too much credence to the poor run Burnley are in - without a win in 11 now - but it's worth noting that during that run they have played Tottenham, Man Utd (twice), Liverpool and Man City (twice), and their other five matches have all been away from home.

By contrast, Southampton look to be in better shape, with four wins and three draws from eight starts, but when you consider that three of those wins came in the FA Cup, a different picture could be interpretted. Taking the league only view, you could argue that they have won just once in 14.

Burnley surely shouldn't be 9/4 in this one which could really be pick-em.

1pt Burnley to beat Southampton

We talked a couple of weeks ago about the value in backing draws in the Premier League between non-big-six teams, and there are a couple of matches which appear to fit the bill again this weekend.

The first is West Brom v Huddersfield. The Baggies have drawn eight from 18 matches against non-big-6, while Huddersfield have drawn 6 of 19. Ther is clearly a great deal at stake. In fact, six of the nine qualifying matches at the Hawthorns have ended up all square, producing an average of just two goals. There are clearly nerves evident in these ultra important matches.

Brighton v Swansea is the next, with the rejuvinated Swans going really nicely under Carlos Carvalhal. The hosts have shared the points in six of their 10 games against sides outside the big-six, while Swansea have drawn three from nine on their travels. The goal expectancy for this game should be no longer than around 2.2 goals, so the draw has to be a really big runner at 11/5.

Next up we have Bournemouth v Newcastle, where the odds on the stalemate are really attractive despite the sides not showing such strong draw stats. Bournemouth have drawn three from nine at home, and Newcastle three from nine away, but 13/5 is on offer for the tie and it's hard to imagine it not being a big runner in this one.

1pt Draws at West Brom (23/10), Brighton (11/5) and Bournemouth (13/5), 3 * 1pt Doubles, 1 * 0.5pt Treble

Total stake 6.5pts

#Football