Premier League 3pms

We came close to a good result last weekend on the draws, and we'll target the same approach again this weekend as stakes continue to rise as the end of the season creeps into view for all those in the bottom half.

So far this season, in games between sides outside the Top 6, 41% have ended in home wins (around a 6/4 chance), 36% have ended in draws (a 9/5 shot) and 23% in away wins (7/2 chance). They have been incredibly tight overall, and that trend, coupled with the fear of losing for either side, has led to that unprecedented high draw tally (so our reasoning goes anyway).

Let's start at Southamton (v Stoke), who have drawn four of their 11 matches against fellow "mortals". Games at St Mary's have been a bit more entertaining than most, with an average of 2.7 goals in such fixtures, but Stoke can come and kill the game to some extent - their away games in the sample set average just 2.2 goals.

For all that has been written about Stoke, it's astonishing to see them just a point behind Southamton, so either side could end up in the relegation zone on Saturday night. It's got tense written all over it, and there will be a huge motivation for either side if they happen to fall behind, and a nervousness from whomever takes the lead. The draw is 14/5 in this one with UniBet, and there is plenty of 11/4 around.

Next we have Swansea v West Ham, with just three points between these two. Excluding Top 6 sides from the stats shows Swansea have drawn just two of their nine at home, with West Ham have drawn four of their 11 away.

Swansea have look a completely different side since Carlos Carvalhal arrived, and have now won six and drawn five of their last 12. They should be able to control West Ham in this one, but it's another story if they go ahead and face a spirited onslaught. Again, the 23/10 looks too big in this one with UniBet.

1pt Draw at Southampton v Stoke

1pt Draw at Swansea v West Ham

1pt Double on two draws

#Football