Champion Hurdle

Run over two miles and a handful of yards, this is the big one on day one. Last year it was the turn of Buveur D'Air who returned for Nicky Henderson, and he’s strongly expected to return to the winners enclosure this time around once more. The bad news is that he was a 5/1 last time, and goes off no longer than 4/7 on current prices this year!

Trends

- 28 of the last 34 won LTO, and 14 from 15 were placed

- 19 of the last 20 have won in the same calendar year

- There have only been four winners older than 8 in 60 renewals

- 8 of the last 11 were aged 6 or 7

- 18 of the last 25 had previously won at Cheltenham, and 14 of the last 15 had raced here before.

- Willie Mullins is the main man, winning four of the last seven.

- 22 of the last 33 winners were placed in the first four at the previous season's festival (and 12 of the last 15)

- Flat horses have a chance - 13 of the last 22 started out on the flat

- 13 of the last 15 had raced within 50 days

- 12 of the last 15 were rated 159 or higher

- 11 of the last 15 had won at least six times over hurdles

- Of 101 starts, only two five-year-olds have won here since 1985.

- 24 of the last 27 were in the top 6 in the market.

Our Picks

Given how strong the first of our trends is, it's worth noting that four of the 13 expected to go to post were last time out winners - the imperious Buveur D'Air, plus My Tent or Yours, Wicklow Brave and Elgin.

It really is impossible to see past the hugely impressive Nicky Henderson runner, but at 4/7 it's not really my idea of a great way to start the festival. I'd rather have a look at who might profit from the soft/heavy ground and run a bigger than expected race. The pick there looks to be Elgin who goes for Alan King, who has supplemented him for this one. He has already landed competitive looking handicaps at both Ascot and Cheltenham towards the end of 2017.

At 20/1 with Bet365, who pay 1/4 ods for a top three finish, he's got to be worth a little bet - that's 5/1 for the place, which is surely too long, and you just never know what more could be possible.

1pt e/w Elgin at 20/1

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