Ultima Handicap Chase

Formally known as the William Hill Trophy, this goes over a challenging 3m 1f and entertains Grade 3 runners. The Cleeve Hurdle is a traditional warm-up event for this race.

Trends

- 12 of the last 15 winners carried less than 11st - 14 of the last 18 winners were rated 143 or lower - 11 of the last 15 winners were in the top four in the betting - 13 of the last 17 winners were novices or 2nd season chasers - 7 of the last 13 won last time out - All six of the previous winners raced with head gear in place. - Only 2 of 48 runs from 11yo+ have even made the frame - Paul Nicholls have tried to win this plenty of times, but is still searching after 21 runs.

Our picks

The expected heavy going could have a big impact on this 3m slog, and as a result I’m most interested in those runners who have handled both the going, and the distance (plus a little). With 18 going to post, we won’t go through all the merits of everything, particularly given there could be some plot horses in here, but will rather focus on a couple we think could go well.

First up is Vintage Clouds, who may look to make all here, and could set a pretty quick pace that others struggle to handle with the going underfoot. While he hasn’t won on heavy ground, he has never been out of the frame in six starts, so clearly handles it well enough. He’s also placed in four of his seven starts at distances between 3m and 3m 4f, so stamina shouldn’t be a problem. At 9/1 we should get a good e/w run for our money here.

The other we are interested in is Ramses de Teillee, who has won two of his five starts on heavy ground (and thrice claimed second place), and also handles the distance better than most. He’s another who looks to run from the front, albeit setting a much gentler pace, but he’ll be able to pick up the pieces if the race is run too quickly. David Pipe has enjoyed plenty of luck in handicaps at the festival, with 18 of his 70 runners in the last nine years getting at least a place.

1pt e/w Vintage Clouds at 9/1 (General) 1pt e/w Ramses De Teillee at 12/1 (General)

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