Ballymore Novices Hurdle

A 2m 5f challenge for novice stayers, aged four or more, and one where the winner almost always has proved themselves over hurdles, Samcro has got the nod to run in this one, which means those punters who ended up behind on Monday may be chasing nice and early on what looks a really good thing.

Trends

- 26 of the last 27 winners have had at least three previous tests over hurdles

- 28 of the last 30 winners sat inside the top six in the betting, and 11 of the last 13 were inside the fop four in the betting.

- 31 of the last 32 winners finished either first or second in their last run out before the festival.

- 6-year-olds have won 14 of the last 22 races, and only one winner since 1980 has been older than six.

- 17 of the last 19 winners were NH bred

- Ex-flat horses have a terrible record - none have won from 28 attempts since 2005

Offers

Sky Bet - Money back as a free bet if you lose (up to £20)

Betway - Money back as a free bet if you lose (up to £10)

Our Picks

Samcro looks tough to oppose, but neither is he as horse who has proved on enough occasions he is the superstar that odds of 8/11 suggest, nor is he one to bet when the offers are giving you your cash back if you lose - you're actually more likely NOT to lose if the odds are correct, so we arent banking much value from the offers.

No, in this one, it would usually be a race to watch and enjoy without a bet, but Sky Bet and BetWay are tempting us out to play, so let's split our stakes on a couple with a 2pt bet at Sky Bet, and a 1pt stake at Betway (I'm making the assumption that you'll consider backing £10 a point here to maximise the value).

For the Sky Bet wager, we'll go with Next Destination who has never raced against Samcro as yet. He's a Willie Mullins/Ruby Walsh runner and is unbeaten in three novice hurdles and won a grade 1 race last time out so warrants resepct.

For the Betway bet, let's try the slightly less fancied Vision Des Flos who has shown some mixed form over the years but does have the raw ability to throw something out there if he is on his day. A recent wind op seemed to yield the right result and he was right on it down at Exeter last month on similar ground as he'll get on Wednesday.

2pt win Next Destination at 7/2 (money back if you lose from Sky Bet)

1pt win Visoin Des Flos at 16/1 (money back if you lose from Betway)

#HorseRacing