JLT Novices Chase

This 2m 4f encounter gets Day Three underway, and it's been regular Willie Mullins territory, although of course he has lost his most effective weapon now with the injury to Ruby Walsh.

Trends

- Irish runners have a great record, winning 6 of the last 7.

- 5 of the last 7 winners had previously won a graded chase

- All 7 previous winners have won at the festival before

- 6 from 7 finished in the top two on their last start

- 6 from 7 returned at shorter than 7/1

Our Picks

Much depends on how the conditions change running into this race, but with more rain forecast, Terrefort looks tremendous value to get out account off to a great start on Thursday at 4/1. He ticked the Graded Chaser box nicely at Sandown last time out, which also ensured he ticked off "Last tim out winner", and "goes off less than 7/1". That run at Sandown was just over a month ago, which looks ideal, and it turned into a real test of stamina at the end as they recorded a really quick time, and the suspicion is that he had the trip covered and some to spare.

In a short UK career, he's already won on soft ground, at this class, and over the distance.

We'll also chuck a dart at Shattered Love e/w, who will go off a little longer in the betting. He has form figures of 11211 this season, including a Graded Chase on soft ground, so he's well versed with the conditions and should give us a run for our money at a fair price.

1pt e/w Terrefort at 4/1 (Sky Bet - Money Back if you lose)

1pt e/w Shattered Love at 15/2 (Betway - Money Back if you lose)

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