Queen Mother Champion Chase

The feature race on the second day of the Festival, the Queen Mother Champion Chase is a Grade 1 race, run over 2 miles, and what a race it promises to be with Altior, Douvan and Min set to scrap it out.

Trends

- 30 of the last 32 winners have previously won over course and distance, or had won over 2m 2f in their career.

- 16 of the last 17 winners had raced no more than four times in the current season

- 11 of the last 15 winners took on the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown

- The Arkle Trophy winners alwasy go well here - 14 of the last 16 have placed in this event!

- 14 of the last 15 winners were rated 160 or higher

- 22 of the last 31 winners have previously placed at a Cheltenham Festival race

- 34 of the last 36 have gone off shorter than 11/1

- 15 of the last 19 winners came from the Top 3 in the betting.

- 13 of the last 18 winners ran in either the Arkle or the Champion Chase the year before.

- 13 of the last 15 winners had run over fences at least five times

- 13 of the last 15 had been out over the Cheltenham fences previously.

Our Pick

All the excitement has been around Altior, with his recent fitness concerns ringing plenty of alarm bells with antepost backers - firstly a significant wind operation, then a foot injury. Couple that with his relatively light experience of the heavier ground we are going to see today and I'm not sure 5/4 is the best investment you're ever likely to lay down. Of course, he ticks plenty of trend boxes, but at the price we have to look elsewehere.

Douvan is the obvious alterniatve at 4/1 on his best form, but he could be going more the way of Faugheen as the years roll on, and he looks unlikley to repeat the best effort which might be needed to win this one. He definitely stays the trip on soft, but there are just too many questions about whether he really is the horse of old.

Instead, lets back Min at 4/1. Clear of injury and any obvious doubts he's probably the safer option for a small bet. On absolute best efforts, it's doubtful he'd have enough, but its more doubtful we'll see a best effort from either of his competitors, so a personal best could take this one.

1pt Min at 4/1

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