Stayers Hurdle

This looks a cracking little race, if a little light on real quality. The field looks so tight this really is a tough race to crack, as we look for the winner over just shy of three miles - it's going to take a hardy old soul to win this one.

At a recent preview evening for the festival it was almost impossible to stop the panel talking about Sam Spinner, so he warrants huge respect just on that, although he's a little shorter than he was a week or so ago.

Trends

- 10 of the last 13 winners won last time out

- 16 of the last 17 winners came from the top 4 in the betting

- 8 of the last 16 were French bred

- 14 of the last 16 winners finished inside the top 2 in every hurdling run that season

- 12 of the last 13 winners SP'd shorter than 10/1

- 17 of the last 18 were rated 165 or better!

Our Picks

Sam Spinner does look the one to beat here, and with such a modest field this year it's hard to see who would be the challenger. There are the likes of Unowhattimeanharry and Yanworth from JP McManus of course, and Supaundae, but after those the quality drops off very rapidly.

He's always gone well on the heavier ground which is a bonus for sure, and beat L'Ami Serge this season in the Long Walk Hurdle. That result and his other starts this season has seen his rating climb and climb and there is certainly no suggestion that there isn't more to come as he continues to improve with every run.

Our other selection is a bit of a leap of faith. No 10 year old has ever acheived success in this event, but perhaps thats no bad thing if we are going to pick up the e/w money behind our first choice anyway.

Unowhatimeanharry is clearly a classy performer and finished in the money last year after being sent off at odds-on. He's won 6 of his 8 starts on soft ground, and 7 of 14 on soft to heavy if it does soak up some more overnight.

One of the best performers in the field at this level, he's also proved at course, distance and in these bigger fields, which many of his rivals haven't had much experience of. He maintains a strong rating, and while he's not exactly going to be one to find improvement from, he could have enough already to claim a place.

1pts e/w Sam Spinner at 7/2 (4 places 1/5 with many)

1pt e/w Unowhatimeanharry at 8/1 (4 places, 1/5)

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