Brown Advisory Plate

Here we have a competitive Grade 3 Handicap Chase, run over 2m 4f and attracting a tricky field of 26 runners at time of writing!

Trends

- 26 from 30 winners were rated less than 141

- The last nine winners carried under 11 stone

- 20 from 26 winners had run at the Festival before

- Horses without a win at Class 3 or better have a very poor record

- 16 of 17 winners have gone off at double figures (most runners do though of course)

Our Picks

Ballyalton is the first to jump out at us on the trends - he's coming here carrying 10-9 and rated 138 - a real sweet spot over the history of this race. He's previously been victorious in the Novices Handicap Chase two season's ago which gives him experience over these fences - in fact, he's run at Cheltenham more times than any other in the field (7) and placed four times. He should handle both the ground and the trip, and will be helped by sitting in behind the main pack and keeping out of trouble. He also has a turn of foot to challenge most others in this renewal, and could find himself gobbling up the yards towards the end. Sky Bet play 6 places in this one.

We also like the look of Tully East who has won over both course and distance previously, and should be relied upon to put in a good show. He carries 11-5 into this which is definitely a negative and had been moved well up the weights for previous runs, but he loves the heavy going and should be suited by a quick paced race that we may well see today. That's enough to tempt us into a small play at 10/1 with the extra places.

We'll keep to those two in such a tricky race to call.

1pt e/w Ballyalton at 18/1 (Sky Bet for 6 places)

1pt e/w Tully East at 10/1 (Sky Bet for 6 places)

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