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Bolton v Aston Villa

  • Writer: Dave Pilgrim
    Dave Pilgrim
  • Mar 16, 2018
  • 1 min read

Profitable betting is all about betting when the odds available are better than the true probability of an outcome occuring. Easy right? Well, that's exactly what we believe is the case when it comes to considering a bet on the home side in this, but that brings with it quite another problem - how to pursuade you, the reader, that we should be backing a relatively ordinary side against a team who have been absolutely flying along lately.

Well, we'll do our best. The rest, as they say, is up to you.

Let's start with the odds. Bolton are 4/1 to win this one. A 20% chance in other words, and we simply can't be having that.

They've won seven of their 18 league games at home this season (39%) and that's despite losing the first five. In other words, since then their home form reads 7-4-2. More recently, they have had some mixed results, but they've only actually lost three of their last ten, and have steered themselves away from the drop zone.

Villa are flying of course - with eight wins from their last 11, and five wins from six away matches, but their 3-1 defeat at home to QPR showed that they are beatable, and we can't leave the attractive odds on the table. The bet here has to be the home side.

1pt Bolton to beat Aston Villa at 4/1

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