The Gold Cup

Oh yes, the highlight of the festival is here at last, and what a renewal it promises to be. Might Bite, Our Duke and Native River cannot be split by the bookies, while there are a gaggle behind them who could make things interesting.

Let’s start with an interesting fact from the last ten years. Did you know, in Open Grade 1 races at the Festival, none of the 238 horses sent off at 25/1 or longer managed to win? In fact, only three have won at longer than 14/1 from a sample of 335! Those at 14/1 or shorter (300 starters) won 50 of the 53 races in this group. We shouldn’t look too far down the order then!

Might Bite has been well tipped for a long while now, and there will be plenty aboard with some antepost cash, but with the rain coming, those people might be sensible to start worrying. He’s definitely a quick horse, but he’s arguably unproven when it comes to real stamina, and you’re going to need both to win this one. The King George was run on soft ground, but he didn’t hose up as easily in that as we’d seen before, and he was beaten in his only start on heavy ground. If, as expected, Might Bite tries to set the pace, which, let’s face it, he absolutely will, he’s going to find himself chatting away to Native River, and that’s going to lead to some serious stamina questions as the race unfolds. Has he got enough there? Possibly not. Certainly not to be a 4/1 favourite in our view.

Which leads us neatly into Native River, who has now started to attract the cash. He’s proven on the softer ground and should love the extra distance that it makes this race feel worth. Having won the Welsh National he’s left no doubts there, but this race could have a real swift pace to it, and it means backing either front runner e/w is risky – you’d probably rather just stick with the win bet.

Our Duke is a decent performer, and has previously won the Irish National, and he also won on heavy ground beating Presenting Percy on heavy ground last time out.

For an e/w prospect at a bigger price, Definitely Red looks to be the best shout. Plenty of decent judges have talked up his chances, and he’s twice the price of the front trio, so you’re getting almost the same for a place as they are for the win. He’s a previous course and ground winner and has actually made the frame in 15 of his 17 starts on Soft to Heavy ground. A proven campaigner at the top level, he’s also won every outing at this trip (four from four)

2pts Native River to win at 5/1

1pt e/w Definitely Red at 11/1 with Sky Bet – five places

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