Formula One - 2018 Season Preview

With winter testing complete, the teams are arriving in Australia for the first race of the season – the Melbourne GP. Here we run through what we expect to see this season and open up our antepost portfolio with a few bets of interest.

The “shark fins” are gone from behind the drivers, the “halos” are fitted to protect the drivers and the teams are being asked to work with just three power units this season, down from four last time around. That’s bound to see some teams struggle towards the end of the season, and grid demotions should be a continuing trend. Mercedes and Ferrari seem the calmest about that state of affairs, so must be feeling confident in the mileage they can put their systems through.

The main impact the Halo will have (apart from the obvious safety benefit) will be that viewing is going to get harder. Any teammates with similar helmets are now much harder to identify, so it’s worth learning your numbers!

We’re also moving to softer compound tyres, which should bring lap times down, and move most tracks back from one-stop strategies, to two-stoppers being the norm. Other than that, it’s business as usual, and reasonably static rules mean who are likely to see the order from last year roughly replicated.

The Title Contenders

Mercedes

Clear favourites for both Drivers and Constructors titles, and with very good reason. They have been dominant four years on the trot, returning 1-2 in the Championship in three of those. While they didn’t trot out any eye-catching quick times in winter testing, that’s just not their style, and with the confidence they have in their package they have spent most of the sessions putting all their components through a rigorous work-out and masking their single lap pace with high fuel loads. They completed nearly 5000km overall.

Hamilton has collected 1508 pts in just four campaigns, so it’s impossible to bet against him winning a fifth title and matching Fangio’s achievement.

Bottas was a shade under 60 pts behind Hamilton last season, and although he’ll surely improve - such is the quality of the Finn - whether he has enough to usurp one of the great talents of a generation is another question entirely.

Verdict: Hamilton 1st / Bottas 4th

Red Bull

Christian Horner’s squad have looked superb during the off-season and look to have benefitted from Adrian Newey returning to concentrate fully on doing what he does best. The package looks reliable and quick. In fact, they have probably over-taken Ferrari in terms of the complete performance view, and may have the edge on Saturday’s when it comes to getting the cars positioned right on the grid.

They have a lot of distance to make up to take the fight to Mercedes, but on some tracks they should have the right combination of drivers and car to win. Greater consistency from Verstappen can see him come out ahead of the steady (and quick) Ricciardo.

Verdict: Verstappen 2nd, Ricciardo 5th

Ferrari

The Maranello outfit have been working through some reliability niggles and don’t look quite as well prepared as last season – certainly in terms of their likelihood of battling for the title which they came so close to last time around. The new 2017 car is longer, which should help them on the aero-heavy circuits, but they may not be suited to some of the more mechanic circuits like Monaco or Hungary. Vettel will clearly wring everything out of the car, and that should ensure they keep Red Bull honest, but 3rd might be the best he can hope for this season potentially.

Verdict: Vettel 3rd, Raikkonen 6th

The Midfield

We look like having a bigger gap between the top six and the rest this season, but that’s probably not going to change much. Of the 20 races last season, the “Big 6” locked out the top 5 places in 15 of the races, took the first four places in a further two, and filled the podium in another two. Only Lance Stroll joined the champagne club, and that came in Azerbaijan where we saw all sorts of fun and games going on.

It’s very much Division Two here, and McLaren could be the fastest of the chasing pack on their day. They put in some eye-catching performances over the short stints, and deserve to be taken seriously for sure. In Alonso they have the best driver in this section by a country mile, although his WEC commitments shouldn’t be understated. Not only do they add another six events to an already busy schedule, but included in that are the Le Mans 24 hours and a mad dash between Brazil, China and Abu Dhabi in consecutive weeks in November.

The market is expecting Alonso to be the standout contender from the midfield, but we’re not convinced the reliability will be there consistently enough, nor that the pace is that much better than their closest rivals.

That rival could likely be Renault, who are our pick to be “Best of the Rest”. They’ve had a few gearbox issues over the winter, but their general pace has continued on where it left off last season (as the fourth quickest team) and they definitely look the team to beat when it comes to picking up the pieces. In Hulkenburg and Sainz they have two men who deliver time and time again.

While Renault may have been predictable, it could also be a big year for Haas, who are perhaps not as well fancied. Romain Grosjean nailed over 800km in a single day of testing which demonstrated the reliability the team are now enjoying and that should ensure they are in the hunt often enough to collect any points that come their way.

Force India have consistently punched above their weight, but this might be the season they regress from their 4th spot in the constructors battle. Renault should beat them, Mclaren have a great chance, so they might be scrapping with Haas at some tracks. They’ve promised a big update for Australia, but there is no substitute for testing, and they could be playing catch up.

Finally, Williams look likely to be at the back of the midfield this year. With Massa out of the picture they have lost their most consistent performer, and their line-up looks inexperienced. Robert Kubica loitering in the pits might be more of a distraction than an advantage too.

The backmarkers

This looks a scrap between Toro Rosso and Sauber, with the latter likely to end up at the bottom. Toro Rosso covered pretty decent mileage with their new Honda engine, but there remain plenty of doubts about it, and things won’t be easy. It also lacks pace. Sauber have spent more time in the garage than out on track this winter, and could really struggle to bring the car home in the first few months of the season.

Bets

No driver since Kimi Raikkonen (Lotus Renault in March 2013) has won a race in a car other than a Red Bull, Mercedes or Ferrari, and stability of rules should ensure that remains the case. In fact, the total podium count for those outside those teams reads:

2017 (1 – Stroll)

2016 (3 – Perez (2), Bottas)

2015 (6 – Bottas (2), Massa (2), Perez, Grosjean)

2014 (12 – Various, but Williams took 9 of those)

So that’s 10 podium finishes in three years, and only five different drivers in that time. Quite a sign of how things have been, especially when coupled to that stats about the big teams locking out the top 5 positions in 75% of races last season. This has to give us some value then in backing a few of the field Not to Score a podium, and at the odds, Carlos Sainz appeals strongly with William Hill’s #Yourodds. He’s 5/6 in that market which is definitely too long.

If finishing on the podium is going to be hard, then winning a race will be even tougher, and we cannot make Alonso a 13/8 shot to win a race. That mean’s he’s 4/9 Not to win a Race on the #Yourodds market, and again that has to appeal.

The title has gone down to the final race just once in the last five seasons, and with a stretched calendar, that trend can continue. Four times we’ve gone to the final GP with nothing to play for, and with the likelihood that Mercedes will rule the roost once more, and that Hamilton should dominate Bottas, it looks a fair old bet to happen again at 5/6. Back the title to be decided before the final race at 5/6.

Staying with #Yourodds, Lewis Hamilton’s win totals over the past four season have read 9-10-10-11. Hill offer the Brit to score eight or more this season, and that’s something the World Champion has managed in six of the last 7 seasons. He’s 4/6 for the title remember. There are more races this season, and reliability is getting better and better.

If the Mercedes is the fastest car, which we think it is, it’s surely a surprise to see Bottas as long as 6/1 to lead the championship after three races. He’d need to string a couple of good results together, but he did that a few times in 2017, and it wouldn’t be any surprise to see him ahead early on. 6/1 looks value there.

Finally, being as convinced as we are that Mercedes are going to turn out to be the ones to beat again, the Tricast of Mercedes-Red Bull-Ferrari looks a terrific bet at 2/1 with Sky Bet, and should be backed in our view.

3pts Carlos Sainz not to score a podium finish at 5/6 (Will Hill)

4.5pts Fernando Alonso NOT to win a race at 4/9 (Will Hill)

6pts Title to be decided before the final race (Will Hill)

2pts Hamilton to win eight or more races at 5/6 (Will Hill)

1pt Bottas to be top after three races at 6/1 (Will Hill)

1pt Tricast – Mercedes-RedBull-Ferrari at 2/1 (Sky Bet)

#F1