Premier League Darts - Week 8

Things are progressing much as expected in the Premier League this season, with Michael van Gerwen comfortably on top (averaging over 103), and Rob Cross in pursuit. The most surprising stories so far would surely be Michael Smith winning 10 points from the opening seven matches, and Peter Wright on just 4pts, having won just once.

Mensur Suljovic v Gary Anderson

There are only six players in professional darts who hold a winning record versus Gary Anderson after playing seven or more matches. Phil Taylor and Michael van Gerwen top the list of course, but after that you’re basically looking at players who met the Flying Scotsman before his career took off – Dennis Priestley, Andy Smith and Ted Hankey. Then we have Mensur Suljovic.

Anderson spoke ahead of their last meeting in the Grand Slam saying that he just hates playing against him – the tempo being tremendously disruptive to him. He won that match 16-12, but previous meetings saw Suljovic win 11-9, 10-3 and 6-4, and overall the Austrian holds a 62-53 leg advantage over Anderson.

While the Scot is back to his best , we just can’t have him as an 8/13 favourite in this one given previous history, and the excellent averages Suljovic has been turning in. That puts Suljovic on offer at 3/1, but we’d definitely prefer to keep the draw on our side and turn this into a straight bet between the players, so back the Draw No Bet market – the Austrian is available at 3/1.

It’s probably worth throwing in a bit of insurance on this one, and the +2.5 legs Suljovic looks a great bet at 4/5 with Sun Bets or Marathon Bet. That would not only give us the win on our side, but also cover off the 6-6 and a tight 5-7 defeat.

If we’re doing that, lets also try to hit the jackpot if Suljovic can land a specific correct score. He’ll have the darts in the first leg, making the 7-4 win for the Austrian a very realistic propostion. More realistic than the 11/1 with Ladbrokes.

1pt Suljovic to beat Anderson Draw No Bet at 3/1

2pts Suljovic (+2.5) to win on the handicap at 4/5

1pt Suljovic to win 7-4 at 11/1

Michael Smith v Gerwyn Price

Few would have imagined Michael Smith being as high as 2nd in the table at this stage, and Gerwyn Price looks decent value in our eyes to make a small step towards redressing the balance. He’s going to really need a result here to give himself any sort of chance of avoiding elimination in Liverpool next time out, so it really is now or never for the Welshman.

Hope will come in Smith’s poor average – just over 92.5 for the season so far, and he’s certainly beatable.

At 16/5 with Betfair, the Welshman appeals, while we’ll also back the 4/1 draw available with a host of layers.

Regardless of who wins, we’ve got a great chance of seeing the match won on Double 20 or Double 10 – both players go that route about as consistently as any you will see. Smith goes out on D20 in 35% of his winning legs, and on D10 on a further 27%, while Price hits Tops in 46% of his winning legs (the highest on the PDC) and 22% end up in D10.

1pt Price to beat Smith at 16/5

1pt Match to be a draw at 4/1

2pts Match Winning Double to be D20 at 2/1

1pt Match Winning Double to be D10 at 5/1

Raymond van Barneveld v Michael van Gerwen

Only the one small tickle in this match, where we believe Barnie can continue his good form to make things at least a little bit difficult for MvG. It wouldn’t be an enormous surprise to see Mighty Mike win this one 7-3 (a 4/1 shot), but the value is probably in the 7-5 correct score at odds of 5/1.

1pt MvG to win 7-5 at 5/1

Daryl Gurney v Rob Cross

Another match where the odds don’t look far wrong. Darly Gurney will have the darts on the odds numbered legs, so Cross winning 7-3 feels a reasonable place to start, and the odds of 5/1 look bigger than our model indicates.

It should be a match with plenty of 180s, but the odds have that angle more than covered. The final leg winning colour could be more interesting. Green is on offer at 13/8 with Bet Fred, and given Cross is an habitual d16 man, that has to be value. Our data puts this at around an 11/8 shot.

1pt Cross to win 7-3 at 5/1

1pt Match Winning Double to be Green at 13/8

Simon Whitlock v Peter Wright

Wright hasn’t delivered what he is capable of yet this season, but the sample of seven Premier League games simply isn’t enough to write him off. The problem has been the nature of those recent defeats of course – losing his last three fixtures 7-1, 7-1 and 7-1! Our pure numbers suggest Wright is good value at 11/10 in this one, but can you really back a man who has a -18 leg average over his last three matches? Probably not is the honest answer.

Instead, let’s take the fact that Wright hasn’t been playing well, and match Whitlock’s expected average against that. His line is pitched at 96.5 in this one, and that looks a clear “under” play in this one. He’s only topped that in two of his seven matches this year, and averages in other tournaments have often gone lower than that line as well.

2pts Whitlock to average Under 96.5 at 5/6

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