Premier League 3pms

Running through the Premier League, and the first place we stop our pen/mouse cursor is on the Newcastle v Huddersfield match. A classic encounter between two sides desperate to avoid losing at any cost, with the relegation zone just a few points below them, and just a point splitting them.

Newcastle have drawn five of their last seven against sides outside the Big Six - Brighton (h), Swansea (h), Burnley (h), C Palace (a) Bournemouth (a) – which surely helps underwrite just how cautious these affairs tend to be.

It’s been a similar theme up at Huddersfield, who have shared the points with Southampton (a), Stoke (h), Burnley (h) and Swansea (h) since Christmas. That’s four draws from 10 matches against sides outside the Top Six.

Should the draw really be 27/10 in this one? We don’t think so.

2pts Draw between Newcastle and Huddersfield at 27/10

Moving on, and Man Utd to Win to Nil looks a great investment at 4/5. Mourinho sides have never been sloppy defensively, and he’s never one to risk drawing 1-1 in order to entertain and delight home fans by trying to score four, which probably explains why United are unbeaten at home against sides outside the Top Seven this season. In fact, of the ten matches they have played against such rivals this season, only Newcastle have scored a goal – the other nine coming up short. That’s resulted in nine wins, and eight wins “to nil”.

Add in that Swansea have won just twice on the road all season, and have failed to score in four of their five trips to top seven clubs, and you get the feeling this is a very big price for a pretty predictable game plan.

3pts Man Utd to win to nill against Swansea at 4/5

Brighton v Leicester is another draw game on the stats. Six of Brighton’s matches against Non-Big-Six clubs have ended in draws, with the other five all being home wins. It’s an impressive record for canny manager Chris Hughton, whose Amex form in matches where it matters really counts. It should be enough to give them another season of Premier League football at the very least.

Leicester will be one of the tougher rivals they’ve faced of course, but there tendency towards the stalemate has been evident recently as well, with draws against Bournemouth, Stoke, Swansea all coming since the turn of the year from a sample of seven matches against non-big-six sides.

Again we ask the question – is the draw really a 12/5 shot?

1pt Brighton v Leicester to be a draw at 12/5

The rhetoric continues in Watford v Bournemouth, with the away side having drawn eight of their last 13 against sides outside the top six now. They’ve also draw half of their 10 away matches against the same group. With just a point between the two sides, but now eight points down to the relegation zone, it’s arguable that a share of the spoils would suit both sides reasonably nicely in this one. 12/5 is available with Uni Bet which looks fair game in this one.

1pt Watford v Bournemouth to be a draw at 12/5

Finally, we’ll apply the same logic to West Ham v Southampton, where the sides occupy 17th and 18th in the League. No match could argue loss aversion syndrome applies at a greater level than this one, with the Hammers drawing three of their ten home matches versus non-big-six, and Southampton five of nine away. Southampton especially have some big matches ahead, and won’t dare lose this match, it’s got tight and tense written all over it.

1pt West Ham v Southampton to be a draw at 9/4

Extra Bet

Also, let’s try the doubles and trebles from the draws today – the place to do your shopping on the multiples is Betfair who offer – WAT v BOU (5/2), WHU v SOU (9/4), NEW v HUD (27/10) and BRI v LEI (12/5)

0.5pts * 4 Trebles

1pt * 6 Doubles

#Football